Prime Minister Mark Carney is denying the possibility of a spring election. On Monday, he told reporters Ottawa is “not” planning a snap vote and wants to focus on getting its agenda through Parliament. That is the public line, and it matters. Most governments do not sprint into an election they do not need.But in a minority Parliament, what Carney wants is only half the story. The other half is what the House can survive.Start with the seat count, because the seat count is the plot. .SLOBODIAN: No, I won’t mourn violent ICE agitators and I won’t apologize for it.The Liberals now hold 170 seats, just two short of the 172 needed for a majority. That is close enough to govern, and close enough to fall.A small shift can turn a “stable” minority into a cliff edge. One resignation. A serious illness. A prolonged absence. A backbench revolt on a single high-stakes vote.When you are this tight, you do not need a wave. You need a ripple.We have already seen how quickly the numbers can move. Two Conservative MPs crossed the floor in recent months — Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma — tightening Carney’s grip and fuelling the whisper campaign that Ottawa is hunting for more converts. .Here’s the catch. Floor-crossing is not a governing plan. It is brinkmanship with nicer suits. If the Liberal pitch to fence-sitters stalls, the government is back where it started: one tight vote away from trouble, and one surprise departure away from losing control of the House.The next pressure point is the budget and the budget implementation bill. Budgets are confidence tests in practice, even when politicians pretend otherwise. When the government loses confidence, it falls. When it falls, we go to an election.That is not theory. .WAGNER: ‘The land of my birth has vanished’ — what the Liberals did to Canada.In November, Carney’s minority survived crucial confidence votes tied to the budget. Those votes were explicitly treated as confidence matters, and the government needed opposition co-operation to avoid an election only months after the last federal election.Now the focus shifts to unfinished budget business. Carney himself pointed to parts of the Budget Implementation Act still not passed, including a broad affordability package the government wants to sell as help for “22 million Canadians.”This is where Conservatives see an opening. They are signalling they can oppose the budget bill on substance, not just politics — especially clauses that expand cabinet power. One provision in Bill C-15, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1, has drawn fire because it would allow ministers to exempt companies from the application of many federal laws for a period of time, with limited parliamentary friction. That is the kind of discretionary power Ottawa always promises it will use “responsibly,” right up until it does not..You can already see the writing on the wall. Conservatives say they are voting “no” to defend the rule of law and curb cabinet overreach. Liberals say Conservatives forced an election by blocking affordability measures and basic governance. Then everyone buys ad time and dredges through the snow going door to door asking for your vote.The opposition’s internal calendars also matter. Pierre Poilievre is heading into a leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary on January 29-31. If he comes out with renewed backing, it is easier to justify hardball tactics in the House. Polling and commentary also show the race tightening enough to make election temptation real and risky.Then there is the NDP factor. The party is choosing a new leader in Winnipeg on March 27-29, 2026. The NDP also sits below the 12-seat threshold needed for recognized party status in the House, which changes incentives and raises the stakes on every strategic choice it makes. A new leader may decide the fastest way back to relevance is to stop carrying Liberal water on confidence votes, especially if they think voters will reward a clearer break..OLDCORN: Floor crossing to Liberals isn’t about one MP — it’s about breaking Pierre Poilievre.Ottawa is not openly chasing a spring election today. The Prime Minister is saying “no,” and his House team is arguing Canadians already voted last April and want Parliament to work. Fair enough.But minority governments do not always get to choose. They merely get to gamble and hope the next confidence vote is not the one that ends the game.If the budget implementation fight turns into another nail-biter, if one caucus cracks, or if the opposition decides it is ready, March or April can go from “unlikely” to “inevitable” in a hurry. Canadians should not assume otherwise.
