There’s a reason political parties hold conventions in the dead of winter. It keeps the focus tight. It forces different factions to share hallways, sit in the same rooms, and settle fights face-to-face, the old fashioned way.So if you want to sabotage that kind of unity, you don’t do it in July. You do it right before the delegates arrive in Calgary later this week.As Conservatives head to Calgary for their national convention from January 29 to 31, one question is hanging over everything.Will there be another floor crosser to Mark Carney’s Liberals before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review? .BONDY: Carney’s China gamble — trade diversification is smart — a ‘strategic partnership’ is not.If it happens, this week is the prime time window.Not because floor crossing is very common. It isn’t. But because the incentives are lining up to the Liberals’ advantage.Let’s start with the math..Since November, two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to join the governing Liberals — first Chris d’Entremont, then Ontario MP Michael Ma. The result is that Carney’s team is now just one seat short of a majority. That is not a small detail. It is the difference between negotiating with Parliament and controlling it.And that is why the Liberals have every reason to keep shopping.Carney also has a political reason that goes beyond seat counts. A fresh defection, dropped at the perfect moment, would land like a stink bomb in the middle of the Conservative convention. Right as delegates debate policy, party rules, and, most importantly, Poilievre’s future. .STIRLING: A tale of two Vaclavs, ‘climate cartel’ Carney vs trade deal Trump.Delegates will vote on Poilievre’s leadership review at the convention, with a secret ballot scheduled for January 30. It is supposed to be the moment Conservatives rally after an election loss and decide what comes next.Instead, it risks becoming a weekend of headlines about disunity in the Conservatives.That’s the Liberal playbook, change the subject. Make Conservatives spend the weekend explaining themselves, chasing rumours, and playing defence.We have seen the warm-up act already. When Michael Ma announced his move on December 11, it came only weeks after d’Entremont crossed, with another Conservative MP also stepping away from caucus. .The pattern isn’t subtle. The Liberals want Canadians to believe the Conservative team is cracking and that Poilievre can’t hold his own party together, never mind run the country.And the Liberals have help. After Ma’s defection, political coverage quickly turned from government policy to Conservative turmoil. Ma’s floor crossing was another sign of instability for Poilievre, who is facing a leadership review. That’s not just news coverage. It’s shaping the narrative..BERNARDO: Ottawa flips the switch on the gun confiscations and hands the keys to the RCMP.Now picture the impact of a third defection, timed for maximum damage.Even one more MP walking across the aisle would give Carney the majority he wants and deliver a message to Conservatives arriving in Calgary. Your leader is bleeding support, and the Liberals can smell blood in the water.This is where some Conservatives will roll their eyes and say the same thing they always say, “So what? If someone wants to leave, let them go.”That sounds tough. It’s also naive..Floor crossing is not only about one MP. It is about momentum. It is about doubt. It is about whether people believe you are on your way up or on your way out.And Liberal insiders know how to use timing to squeeze maximum value out of one announcement.The speculation is not coming from nowhere, either. In early November, it was reported D’Entremont was considering the move and that other centrist Conservatives were also being approached by Liberals. A month later, he crossed. Then Ma crossed. The door is open, and Ottawa is watching for the next person to step through it..JÄGER: We all hate ridiculously bright headlights — why not restrict them?.So who might be next?The smart money is not on a headline-grabbing firebrand. It would be someone who can plausibly sell the switch as “putting constituents first” and “working with the government.” It would likely be a centrist, from a tight seat, in a region where Conservatives win by being calm, not loud.In other words, it would be the kind of MP who already feels uncomfortable with the party’s tone or who thinks the next election could be a career-ending event..From the Liberal side, the pitch is simple. Come join us, and you’re part of a government that can deliver funding, projects, and influence. Stay there, and you are stuck in a party that may spend the next year tearing itself apart.From the MP’s side, the calculation is colder. Do I cross now and become the “adult in the room,” or stay put and risk being dragged down by internal warfare?This is also where Conservatives need to stop blaming the media and start blaming their own weak spots.A party headed into a leadership review should not be leaking insecurity. It should not look like it is auditioning for a circular firing squad. .AUBUT: When ideology replaces truth, persecution follows.Conventions are meant to project discipline and confidence. When MPs sense panic, they start thinking like free agents.That’s the real danger for Poilievre this week. Not only the possibility of one more defection, but what it would signal to the thousands of delegates arriving in Calgary that Ottawa thinks the Conservative leader is vulnerable, and that the Liberals are eager to twist the knife.If a floor crosser shows up, the goal won’t be subtle. It will be to poison the atmosphere at the convention, rattle the leadership review, and make Conservatives look divided on national television.Conservatives should act like they expect the hit and refuse to let it define the weekend.
