Bruce Pardy is executive director of Rights Probe and professor of law at Queen’s University.On October 28 in the House of Commons, Liberals defeated a bill to rescind the oil tanker ban on the northern coast of British Columbia. And why not? Their Alberta problem has been put to rest. On October 19, in Alberta’s referendum, 75% of voting Albertans said they would stay in Canada no matter what.For Premier Danielle Smith, it might be the worst possible number. Inside Alberta, the 25% who voted to have a vote on independence is too big to dismiss as a nutty fringe. Independence supporters are regrouping. A civil war is gathering inside her governing United Conservative Party. But outside Alberta, the vote means that everything is fine. Alberta isn’t going anywhere. The Alberta vote marks the end of credible Alberta complaints. Alberta may not realize it yet, but it has shot itself in the foot.Inside Confederation, Alberta has legitimate grievances. Canada’s equalization policies send Albertans’ money to other provinces. It has fewer Senate seats than New Brunswick, but six times its population and economy. Most federal elections are decided before Alberta’s votes are counted. For decades the federal government has obstructed development of its oil and gas resources. The list goes on. For years and decades, Alberta’s own political leaders promised change. The Firewall letter. The West Wants In. The Triple E Senate. The equalization referendum. The rest of Canada never seriously entertained these gripes. Now some Albertans may believe the referendum has sent the rest of the country a message. We’re so unhappy, they might say, that we held a referendum. We considered whether to have a vote to leave the country. But we decided to stick with you. We showed our loyalty to the country. We deserve some love back. Deal with our grievances. Independence may be vanquished for now, they might say, but Western alienation remains.But given the results, Alberta’s complaints matter even less. The biggest winner must surely be Prime Minister Mark Carney. Whatever attention Carney had been giving Alberta in the weeks leading up to the vote can be attributed to the pending vote itself. He even put a pipeline on his list of national projects. Yes, it is a phantom pipeline for “decarbonized” oil. But Smith has been clinging to it like a life preserver in a stormy sea..Now that the vote is done, his incentive is gone. The threat — if there ever was one — has passed. The prospect of independence — no matter how remote — was the strongest card in Alberta’s hand. As far as the rest of the country is concerned, Alberta is happy with the way things are. All those complaints? Nothing to worry about. “Western alienation” always had an unspoken independence edge to it. We don’t belong here, was the implication. If you’re not careful, we’ll leave and take our oil and gas with us. But not anymore. The question has been asked and answered: will you stay in Canada no matter what? Three-quarters of Alberta’s voters, with Danielle Smith’s help, have surrendered the card without a fight. It’s a heck of a negotiating strategy. The referendum had nine other questions, but they hardly mattered. Not everyone inside Alberta, much less in the rest of Canada, understood what they were. Voters approved the first five, which were policy questions about things that Alberta largely already has the power to do on its own. Should Alberta exercise more control over providing healthcare and social programs to immigrants? Should proof of citizenship be required to vote in provincial elections? Smith’s UCP government could have acted on these things long ago if it had really wanted to. Four other questions proposed amendments to the Canadian Constitution. Give provinces the power to appoint judges to superior courts? Abolish the unelected Senate? Grant provinces the right to opt out of federal programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction without losing federal funding? Give provincial laws priority over federal ones when they conflict? Of course, these are fantasy questions. Amending the Canadian Constitution in any of these ways is a pipe dream. But even that is academic now. Albertans said “No” to all of them. Smith has no mandate to even ask for constitutional changes. She can’t even go through the motions. Her people have demanded the constitutional status quo.Alberta federalists had complained that Smith’s referendum would open the door for Alberta’s departure. It hasn’t done that. Yet it has done two other things they won’t like. Inside Alberta, it has established the independence movement as a viable political constituency. Outside Alberta, it has undermined the credibility of Alberta’s ongoing beef. Alberta had a chance to change the game. Instead, it got in its own way. Alberta has neutered itself.Bruce Pardy is executive director of Rights Probe and professor of law at Queen’s University.
