This is not a reflection of the position of Take Back Alberta (TBA) as an organization. We have supporters for all the leadership candidates in TBA. These are simply my own thoughts as a lifetime political practitioner and current observer of this race..The first and most important measure of any political campaign is who is framing the debate. Donald Trump is the master of this, he is always forcing his opponents to talk about the issues that he raises. It is an art that is underappreciated by pundits. Momentum is real..There is no doubt that Danielle Smith has the momentum in the United Conservative Party leadership race. The clearest evidence of this is that all the other candidates are either talking about her or the issues she is raising. Their internal polling has her as the front runner..Danielle Smith's talking about the issues that currently matter to UCP members:.1) Vaccine mandates.2) Alberta's place in confederation.3) Ottawa's attack on our economic well being.4) The healthcare crisis.Travis Toews is widely seen as being in second place and the "establishment" pick. He is in a very tough spot politically because he needs to define himself as a leader while maintaining Jason Kenney’s remaining base of support..Normally having the support of the current premier, co-founder of the party, and a well known figure of the small "c" conservative movement, would be a huge advantage; but Jason Kenney was just removed from office by the members because they were so disgusted with him..This means that Travis Toews has to try to bridge the divide between Kenney loyalists and those who dedicated their time, efforts, and financial backing to remove him. The end result is a campaign that does not appear to have a clear agenda..He seems to be wandering between saying that what happened in the past is wrong, and promising that nothing will really change under his watch. That means he is courting the "conservative" or "status quo" wing of the UCP without any real plan to win over the other side..Then we have Brian Jean backed by the formidable Vitor Marciano. This campaign is the most experienced, most organized, and most meticulous on the details. Anyone who knows Vitor Marciano knows that he should never be counted out, and that he has a plan..As of right now, we have not heard nearly enough about Brian Jean in the leadership race. Somehow the media has begun to believe that this is a two way race. I disagree, I actually think the field is quite open and that Brian is doing a lot better than people think..I know his team has done this before and the best way to get good at something is to do it over and over again, so I think there is some real dark horse potential here and I am not sure why people are not paying as much attention to this campaign as they should..Rebecca Schulz is definitely a candidate to watch. The backing of Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall would have been enough to solidify an early lead in any normal election cycle; but we are in a post-COVID Alberta where there is a highly organized freedom movement..In this sense, Schulz has a much harder path than Travis Toews. She is relatively unknown, not from Alberta (she moved here less six years ago), and she does not have the credentials needed to lead a largely rural party, but she has run an impressive campaign so far..Then we have Todd Loewen. A man of principle who stood up to Kenney and was punished for it. He's got a good campaign team, got on the ballot without any institutional help, and was accepted as an official candidate by the party..Todd has a significant following in the freedom movement. He's making real progress in getting his message to the public; but his biggest struggle is name recognition. He needs to get his name in front of as many people as quickly as possible to have a path to victory..I have not had the pleasure of speaking with Rajan Sawhney much, but my friend Angela Pitt has backed her and that is a good enough character endorsement for me to believe she is a good person. I know she publicly opposed Jason Kenney’s leadership..I think that Rajan Sawhney is a great politician, a huge asset to the UCP and a proud Albertan, but her name recognition is abysmal. Nobody knows who she is and I have not seem much success by her campaign in getting her name out there..I think it is equally bad for Rajan Sawhney that her campaign manager is the buffoon Ken Boessenkool; who hasn't had a good political take in over a decade and is a perennial leech on people who don't know what a good campaign looks like..Then we have Leela Aheer. She's the reason that Jason Kenney kicked Derek Fildebrandt out of the party. She's probably going to lose her own nomination against a well organized social conservative challenger and she doesn't sound conservative at all..Yet, she stood up to the tyranny of Jason Kenney when most of her caucus colleagues were too cowardly to do so. She deserves kudos for that and the respect of the freedom movement, even if she disagrees with us and sounds very left wing to be running in a right wing party..Overall, the race is still in the early stages. There is a front runner, all you need to see to know that is true is to pay attention to who the other candidates are attacking. Danielle Smith is currently in first place; but there is a long race ahead of us and a week is an eternity in politics, three months could change everything and anything. How this ends up, will be the direct result of the quality of campaigns each team runs.
This is not a reflection of the position of Take Back Alberta (TBA) as an organization. We have supporters for all the leadership candidates in TBA. These are simply my own thoughts as a lifetime political practitioner and current observer of this race..The first and most important measure of any political campaign is who is framing the debate. Donald Trump is the master of this, he is always forcing his opponents to talk about the issues that he raises. It is an art that is underappreciated by pundits. Momentum is real..There is no doubt that Danielle Smith has the momentum in the United Conservative Party leadership race. The clearest evidence of this is that all the other candidates are either talking about her or the issues she is raising. Their internal polling has her as the front runner..Danielle Smith's talking about the issues that currently matter to UCP members:.1) Vaccine mandates.2) Alberta's place in confederation.3) Ottawa's attack on our economic well being.4) The healthcare crisis.Travis Toews is widely seen as being in second place and the "establishment" pick. He is in a very tough spot politically because he needs to define himself as a leader while maintaining Jason Kenney’s remaining base of support..Normally having the support of the current premier, co-founder of the party, and a well known figure of the small "c" conservative movement, would be a huge advantage; but Jason Kenney was just removed from office by the members because they were so disgusted with him..This means that Travis Toews has to try to bridge the divide between Kenney loyalists and those who dedicated their time, efforts, and financial backing to remove him. The end result is a campaign that does not appear to have a clear agenda..He seems to be wandering between saying that what happened in the past is wrong, and promising that nothing will really change under his watch. That means he is courting the "conservative" or "status quo" wing of the UCP without any real plan to win over the other side..Then we have Brian Jean backed by the formidable Vitor Marciano. This campaign is the most experienced, most organized, and most meticulous on the details. Anyone who knows Vitor Marciano knows that he should never be counted out, and that he has a plan..As of right now, we have not heard nearly enough about Brian Jean in the leadership race. Somehow the media has begun to believe that this is a two way race. I disagree, I actually think the field is quite open and that Brian is doing a lot better than people think..I know his team has done this before and the best way to get good at something is to do it over and over again, so I think there is some real dark horse potential here and I am not sure why people are not paying as much attention to this campaign as they should..Rebecca Schulz is definitely a candidate to watch. The backing of Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall would have been enough to solidify an early lead in any normal election cycle; but we are in a post-COVID Alberta where there is a highly organized freedom movement..In this sense, Schulz has a much harder path than Travis Toews. She is relatively unknown, not from Alberta (she moved here less six years ago), and she does not have the credentials needed to lead a largely rural party, but she has run an impressive campaign so far..Then we have Todd Loewen. A man of principle who stood up to Kenney and was punished for it. He's got a good campaign team, got on the ballot without any institutional help, and was accepted as an official candidate by the party..Todd has a significant following in the freedom movement. He's making real progress in getting his message to the public; but his biggest struggle is name recognition. He needs to get his name in front of as many people as quickly as possible to have a path to victory..I have not had the pleasure of speaking with Rajan Sawhney much, but my friend Angela Pitt has backed her and that is a good enough character endorsement for me to believe she is a good person. I know she publicly opposed Jason Kenney’s leadership..I think that Rajan Sawhney is a great politician, a huge asset to the UCP and a proud Albertan, but her name recognition is abysmal. Nobody knows who she is and I have not seem much success by her campaign in getting her name out there..I think it is equally bad for Rajan Sawhney that her campaign manager is the buffoon Ken Boessenkool; who hasn't had a good political take in over a decade and is a perennial leech on people who don't know what a good campaign looks like..Then we have Leela Aheer. She's the reason that Jason Kenney kicked Derek Fildebrandt out of the party. She's probably going to lose her own nomination against a well organized social conservative challenger and she doesn't sound conservative at all..Yet, she stood up to the tyranny of Jason Kenney when most of her caucus colleagues were too cowardly to do so. She deserves kudos for that and the respect of the freedom movement, even if she disagrees with us and sounds very left wing to be running in a right wing party..Overall, the race is still in the early stages. There is a front runner, all you need to see to know that is true is to pay attention to who the other candidates are attacking. Danielle Smith is currently in first place; but there is a long race ahead of us and a week is an eternity in politics, three months could change everything and anything. How this ends up, will be the direct result of the quality of campaigns each team runs.
