The stage is set for a real-life gunfight at the Alberta version of the OK Corral.
The federal Marshall, Prime Minister Carney, has notionally approved a pipeline to the Pacific with numerous conditions, especially the open-ended costs and risks of “decarbonized” oil. The town's Sheriff, Premier Smith, can acquiesce to this condition or meet the smooth-talking gambler at high noon for the confrontation.
Maybe the most consequential decision of her career — is Danielle Smith a gunslinger or will she bet the ranch on Carney’s word?
The federal Marshall, from far away Ottawa, also has a self-made dilemma — his still new role as Prime Minister depends upon his “build Canada” promises; yet his pretentious global climate role for more than a decade makes him perhaps the single most prominent climate crusader in the world after the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
This slick operator, despite gaining unfettered control through Bill C-5, has placed the onus on Alberta to accept, at best, burdensome but also financially risky conditions for approval. With his own internal party problems within the anti-oil/Alberta federal Liberal Party, Carney was bragging about his “climate action” requiring the only decarbonized oil anywhere.
As the townsfolk gather to witness the shootout, how will Premier Smith respond? To date, it is to “trust Mark Carney” and seek capital internationally for a country which poisoned its own well (oil that is). Her ultimate response is the potential high noon moment.
For the Premier, fortuitously, midstreamers Enbridge and Trans Mountain are optimizing current pipeline capacity, which, according to RBN Energy, will provide up to 700,000 BPD in the next few years.
Relatively new South Bow, a spin-out of oil assets from the former Trans Canada/TC Energy, is rejuvenating a Keystone XL equivalent with an American partner and a less controversial routing. In fact, with support from Trump, most approvals are already in place.
SOBO can eventually provide yet another almost million barrels of takeaway capacity to facilitate industry growth. So, we will have adequate access to the US for years, also providing Canada additional optionality to move oil offshore through the Gulf of Mexico.
A provincial government pivot to “no way” to Carney’s conditions is a tactical winner, moving the onus back on him. Despite promises “to build,” a year later, there is no tangible evidence of progress other than taking credit for projects already underway, such as LNG Canada Phase II. This will further expose his attempt to finesse his cross purposes.
The stakes at OK Corral are momentous — will Alberta continue to accept its own special status as a hired hand underling? Example — why is decarbonized oil foisted on Western upstream producers while central Canadians burn almost a million barrels a year, which emits 80% of carbon dioxide along the emissions trail? Typical Laurentian elitism.
Many of those who accept the premise that Alberta will never have a say in our pretend democracy, and therefore seek other remedies for self-determination, are also members of the UCP she leads. This sets up the worst possible outcome that Premier Smith, of anyone, should well understand — her repeat contribution to the election of another NDP provincial government.
Danielle Smith has gone past her previous rash actions, becoming a respected, energetic, competent, and sincere political leader in a country that needs more people like her.
Such a split would be a home run for the Prime Minister and those in Central Canada who despise Canada's most important industry and condescend towards those of us who provide one of the world’s most important products.
Premier Smith is facing a real gunfight at OK Corral. Will she strap on her six-shooters and stand up for Alberta’s future in or out of Confederation, or continue to “trust Mark Carney?”
We need no excuses, no ambiguity, or unnecessary and unique conditions — the need for confrontation is compelling!
