PINDER: Danielle Smith wants the pipeline too much — that's why she's losing negotiating leverage

As these pages often emphasize, Premier Danielle Smith is a skilled and sincere political leader with many attributes. Recognizing no one possesses every skill all the time for every occasion, it is fair to suggest negotiation is not at the top of her list.Also acknowledged in previous pages, the Premier is in a tenuous position as a large component of her UCP base prefers the independence option. Until recently, the Premier has wisely remained neutral, rightly ensuring that Alberta citizens are heard.More recently, however, she has become vocal, expressing her adamant desire for Alberta to remain while spinning the notion of “sovereignty within a united Canada.” Sounds great, but what does it mean, and how will it be achieved? Already, it appears most of the nine demands laid down in a televised broadcast on February 19 are now forgotten.Her Captain Canada emergence further risks the deepening structural fault in the UCP as many party members (and non-party supporters) are at odds with her cozy relationship with the Prime Minister, and by extension, the federal Liberals. She announced the MOU like a giddy schoolgirl invited to her first prom.Important as the pipeline certainly is, it's only a symptom of the broader relationship. This time, it was Carney who laid down conditions, including the world’s first decarbonized oil. If it is so important, the Prime Minister should lead from the front by demanding decarbonized oil where it is most consumed – in Ontario and Quebec.This writer spent 35 years on a part-time basis representing hockey players in their contractual affairs, and for many, their financial affairs. This was facilitated by reading many books, attending negotiation seminars, a class at business school, and so forth. Negotiation is, in large part, a learned skill, and the Premier owes it to Albertans to retain the best possible person to obtain the best possible result..In terms of negotiation principles, the first is to ‘know thine self.’ The Premier knows she is not an experienced industry executive, and she should know much of her tremendous appeal is her enthusiasm and communication skills. But demonstrating to her adversary undue eagerness for this pipeline weakens her negotiation position.Herb Cohen wrote a seminal bestseller in 1980 (You Can Negotiate Anything), still relevant today. He advised “don’t care too much,” never negotiate without options or reveal your deadline, and usually the winner is the most patient. Is the Premier too eager?Another principle is ‘know thine adversary.’ Saying publicly that she “trusts Mark Carney” demonstrates a misunderstanding of him and his deep values. Earlier this decade, for example, he was instrumental in creating GFANZ, a global organization of lenders to squeeze lending to the energy sector. All the major Canadian banks joined. Trust him?Renown columnist John Robson asked in the National Post on July 16, “How can we trust him on anything, from balancing the budget while running deficits to ethics or even climate?…we are entitled to disregard anything he says about anything. He lied. He lies all the time, about big things and small, without shame or hesitation.” I trust John Robson.Again, wanting this too much when significant additional takeaway capacity is on the immediate horizon, fails to understand that Carney’s political credibility depends on his “build Canada” promises — the immediacy is on him. An experienced negotiator, he knows better than to be too anxious, unlike Smith, even when time favours Alberta..With the understanding that none of us possesses every needed skill, the Premier should consider turning over the nuts and bolts of this negotiation to a seasoned industry person. This would serve the province well and distance her from her unnecessary and recent Captain Canada role, increasingly resented by many Albertans who elected her. The ultimate risk we all know — a split in the UCP would have a high likelihood of electing the NDP. Does Danielle Smith want to be partly responsible for electing the socialists a second time? This would be the ultimate win for fellow traveller Carney.It is likely most Albertans, pro-independence or Canadian patriots alike, would like to see Smith’s nine questions addressed. This would also put the onus and heat on Carney and perhaps strengthen her hand and support from Albertans. Shifting the onus and regaining momentum is far superior to accepting a conditional approval process and the possibility of an uneconomic project, commercial rejection, or taxpayer dollars.Those important questions are the subject of my next column.

PINDER: Danielle Smith wants the pipeline too much — that's why she's losing negotiating leverage

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