The cleanest fossil fuel, natural gas, has an exciting future..It may be volatile: Unique circumstances in 2022 created temporary but unprecedented high global natural gas prices. But, the long term importance of natural gas to Canada’s economic, social and environmental future is increasingly evident..First, a little history. Early production of natural gas in the last century was primarily a byproduct of oil production. Lacking a market, it was often flared..This century, the global development of the gas industry is one of the key stories of the energy complex. This includes productive capacity and critical infrastructure, both in the field and on coastlines to ship and receive liquefied natural gas (LNG)..In one of modern history’s great strategic miscalculations, Angela Merkel — once considered a generational global leader — bet Germany’s economic future on natural gas supply by pipeline from Russia. She also orchestrated the shutdown of established nuclear energy plants well before their normal obsolescence..One of the world's manufacturing leaders, exporting more than 50% of its highly regarded products, Germany's economy is now in decline, its future uncertain and again the country is consuming record levels of coal..Germany's great mistake provides us with important lessons — that the security and form of energy underpin the well-being of a country and its citizens. It also reminds us of the need to be strategic in our thinking. .We all are familiar with the story of the European scramble for natural gas to replace former Russian gas..Global gas prices reached unheard of levels as European and other countries paid up, even to reroute LNG headed elsewhere. Even though Canada's natural gas production has languished for decades, sharply increasing North American prices generated unprecedented revenues for Canadian producers in 2022..The debacle confirmed the importance of natural gas as a stable, affordable, necessary and increasingly available complement to wind and solar generated electricity..Renewables provide more than 40% of power in Germany when the wind blows, but when needed most, its world-leading non-fossil fuel energy turned out to be undependable..It's been a different story this year: Warm summer weather has strengthened North American prices recently, but they're still at a fraction of those a year ago. (Another moderating influence was a fire in June 2022 at the Freeport liquefaction facilities on the Gulf Coast, that cut demand and therefore reduced prices.).Second, a look at the future..Subject to heating days in the winter and cooling days in the summer, this seasonal volatility is on top of broader global dynamics. The combination has resulted in US demand as low as 90 billion cubic feet per day (bcfpd) and as high as 140 bcfpd. As with oil, this highlights the important role of storage as a function of normal production..Volatility aside, the long-term theme for gas is a steeper growth profile than other fossil fuels. There are several reasons..To begin with, given the intermittent nature of renewables — the unpredictability that is, of wind and sunshine — consumers must have an alternate energy source. Thanks to the relative ease with which it can be both cranked up and turned off on short notice, gas is that alternate..A second important driver of future growth is that compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas is relatively 'green.'.Its carbon emissions are roughly half those of oil and even more so compared to coal, which it often replaces. It is abundant and compared to other fossil fuels, inexpensive. The average equivalent price relationship until 2019 was 10 to 1, reflecting oil’s higher density. Standard financial reporting is 6 to 1..Notwithstanding the volatility of both commodities, gas is relatively underpriced as an energy fuel. It is also less costly in North America, now the largest natural gas producer in the world..With production now exceeding 100 bcfd, the US has surpassed other leading producers Qatar and Australia, for the time being at least. Domestic growth leads to lower than global prices at gas hubs in North America..The US is also the world's largest exporter of natural gas at about 13 to 14 bdpd. Those numbers will more than double in the next few years given projects announced and/or underway..This at a time — just like oil — that dramatic US production growth is peaking. The largest basin, the Marcellus, has been blocked in New England and New York, and the Permian, also a significant producer of associated gas, is showing signs of lower growth prospects..LNG Canada is targeting 2025 to begin exporting gas to Asia, further integrating North America into the global market..With the eventual doubling of its liquefaction facilities, and two other smaller west coast projects, Canada will be in the game with about five bcfpd — late and small versus the US, especially given our incredible resource potential, but nevertheless a template for the future..It may be significant that the four Atlantic premiers jointly condemned the new federal fuel legislation designed to reduce oil and gas production, also trampling on provincial rights..The incredible LNG opportunity is not just based in the west, as Atlantic provinces and Quebec have resources and low emission electricity which, if developed, would add much needed gas supply to Europe and more efficiently supplied than from the US Gulf coast..To conclude then, current moderate prices aside, the industry in Canada is rejuvenated by the prospects of additional five bcfd of takeaway capacity after too many years of constrained production levels in the 12 to 14 bcfd range..The prolific Montney Basin, extending north and west, competes with the best in North America with the huge advantage of low emission electricity from BC Hydro. Green gas will soon supply energy hungry Asian countries from Kitimat and Squamish..With the upward trajectory of natural gas prices described above, the revenue potential is immense — company earnings, federal and provincial taxes and royalties, dividends, foreign exchange, much needed stature for Canada and unprecedented opportunities for indigenous people for employment and transit payments. (All 20 bands along the TCL route to Kitimat support the LNG pipeline through their territories.).Canada is a world leader with more than 80% of its electricity from hydro, the lowest emission energy source..Replacing coal with gas is one of the sensible priorities of the global warming fanatics. But the lack of strategic thinking in Canada limits these significant benefits to both the world and our citizens..Ideologues, by definition, value their emotional satisfaction over logical outcomes. Central Canadians who elect the current federal government underestimate the unique opportunity to reduce global emissions and, like the US, strategically pursue this incredible environmental and economic opportunity..The long term future of Canadian natural gas depends on the common sense of Canada’s regulatory regime..For individuals, businesses, non-profits, and countries, competitive advantage is the foundation of a winning and sustainable strategy.
