Dear Danielle,This unsolicited letter is founded with the best of intentions for Alberta and Saskatchewan, and by extension, our country. For the record, I am a big fan of yours as a smart, energetic, proactive, diligent, conservative, and excellent communicator who includes an endearing element of charm.So, I feel compelled to comment on the current pipeline MOU now in negotiation and the temerity to suggest an evolution of your approach.Everyone understands you and Premier Moe, from my home province of Saskatchewan, are caught in a tenuous situation. As I am one who favours independence (a default position as the only real solution to self-determination for the citizens of our provinces), this last round has made clear you are a strong federalist, as is our Premier. Those sentiments are fraught with political risk, given the composition of the UCP and the possibility of fragmentation, somewhat already evident. One fully understands it is difficult for the Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan to favour independence.With that understanding, your obvious enthusiasm for striking a deal with the Prime Minister in respect of his important ‘major project’ might merit reconsideration. You have the distinct advantages of optionality and timing. There is often a high ROP — return on patience — in these matters, and this appears to be one of those moments to set a slower pace. The important objective for Albertans and all of us in the West (all four provinces are oil and gas producers) is to ensure enough takeaway capacity so that we never again experience the competition for access at this end of pipelines and wider differentials, meaning higher WTI discounts.As the leader of Alberta, you also have a distinct advantage over the Prime Minister, who serves two masters. His political well-being depends upon the success of his campaign theme to “build Canada.” Yet his deep and demonstrated leadership as a global climate activist makes it very personal — he wants to impress his peer group — the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the European Union, and his global climate colleagues..Likewise, you have a self-made problem appearing to acquiesce to Carney to show Albertans ‘cooperative federalism’ works. With the greatest respect, your primary mandate is to get the best outcome for Albertans, instead of being Canada’s saviour — maybe leave that to Doug Ford (whose ratings have tumbled).Fortunately, the planned expansion of takeaway capacity provides you with the advantage of time and the benefit of ROP that Carney lacks from the expectations of urgency he has created.No doubt you are aware that Enbridge has approval for, and committed capital to, expand the mainline by 150,000 barrels per day (BPD), and Flanagan South for 200,000 BPD, and Trans Mountain is in the process of adding at least 300,000 BPD.Additional good fortune is the emergence of the Prairie Connector, whereby South Bow will finish the line to the US border, connecting with Bridger Pipeline, an upstream and midstream company which is building a pipeline to Guernsey. From there is further destination optionality, including moving barrels to the Gulf and beyond.Requisite approvals have already been received, and more, if needed, given a supportive White House. This will generate roughly 500,000 BPD of additional takeaway capacity. All this suggests more than a million additional barrels and reduces the urgency for the line to the Pacific. Prairie Connector is a superior alternative in terms of timing, cost, and likelihood of approval. In due course, Carney may regret his typical federal government condescending ultimatum — “no Pathways project, no pipeline.” .Expectations for the latter have enabled him, for the time being, to brag to his Cabinet and Caucus that his agenda includes, in his words, “climate action.” I doubt making Albertans stooges for Carney and his global elitist pals is either beneficial economically for Albertans or politically for you.An analysis will likely show that barrels through the Gulf onto Asia will add about $3 per barrel. This will compare favourably to the Pathways ultimatum and further unknown but real costs for support of BC and Aboriginal bands.Serendipitous, perhaps, Premier, you now have the option of saying no to the climate crusader in Ottawa and supporting the credible South Bow initiative now well underway. Naysayers may argue for the strategic importance of a pipeline to the Pacific. That is the PM’s responsibility and choice — he could avoid the unneeded costs of his “climate action” or utilize his unfettered power that Parliament provided in Bill C-5 for this autocrat.All this will make most Albertans happy with their Premier, serving their interests and seeing through the duplicity of a Prime Minister who should be representing all Canadians, not his rancid ambition and global pals. It was famous economist John Maynard Keynes who said, “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, Sir?” The facts are evolving. What will you do, Madame?Sincerely, Herb Pinder
