The wheels are in motion, and the independence‑referendum train has already left the station. Decades of neglect and abuse of Western interests have created unprecedented frustration. From where I sit, Central Canada will never treat the Western provinces as full partners in the federation.Following the truism that if you can’t change them, change yourself, several initiatives now occupy the front seats on the independence train. Strong conservative leaders such as Premiers Danielle Smith and Scott Moe have passed unprecedented laws that reinforce provincial constitutional powers. After years of The West wants in and the Reform Party’s failure, the mindset has evolved from pleading to defiance.Premier Smith has laid out conditions and timelines to corner “Cagey” Carney, the master of slippery promises. During the campaign, he touted an “energy corridor” as one step toward making Canada an “energy superpower.” Now, as prime minister, only “low‑carbon” oil is acceptable, and every pipeline still needs sign‑off from every province and Indigenous nation along the route..Not hard to imagine the sequel: "I wanted to do it, but we couldn’t get unanimity." Expect weasel words like “we’ll see” and crocodile tears. Anyone who has followed Carney’s career, or read his book — where he claims that human values (his) trump market values — knows his long‑term agenda. Perhaps he’ll surprise us, but don’t bet on it.And how is it that free markets, with individual choice, aren’t the ultimate expression of human values? Do we really need politicians to override markets and dictate our values?.Another sign of prairie defiance is simply ignoring Ottawa’s diktats. Premier Moe has pledged to keep burning coal for the full life of a key SaskPower plant. Will the feds send in the RCMP — or the military — to arrest “just come and get me” Moe? Alberta and Saskatchewan are already exploring their own provincial police forces.With Ontario and Quebec police forces long established — and the once‑storied RCMP a shadow of its former self — Ottawa has no remedy as the battered provinces grow more obstinate.Premier Smith is seeking a private partner to build another pipeline rather than wait for Cagey Carney to exploit provincial or Indigenous opposition. For his part, B.C. Premier David Eby should drop the charade of no projects on offer and start encouraging anything reasonable.He, too, might recall the basics: if his goal is to hurt Alberta and Saskatchewan by blocking pipeline access, the easy counter is to halt key B.C. goods moving east or west. Belligerence requires little intelligence, and a provincial police force could make it stick..The tanker ban off the West Coast — backed by Eby — stands even as U.S. tankers sail down from Alaska and others steam up the St. Lawrence. The coastline belongs to all Canadians, and the Prairies want a say in national policy.A shutdown of oil to Burnaby, with the chaos that would follow, might remind Eby that oil isn’t so evil. The pause could be as brief as Carney’s instant surrender on a digital tax. In this showdown, the Prairies hold more cards.If things turn ugly — and they will once the Laurentian elite defends its power — the West can play matching cards. Ottawa’s proposed emissions cap, for example, targets production even though 80 per cent of emissions occur when fuel is burned and only 10 per cent at the wellhead. The path to real cuts runs through Ontario and Quebec.Since that fact is ignored, Alberta and Saskatchewan could trim the 540 000 barrels a day that flow to refineries in Sarnia and beyond — fuel that powers Central Canada’s factories and cars. The political blow‑back would be swift. Emission goals would be met, but so would recession..In their zeal to punish uppity Westerners, our masters in Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal forget who decides where Prairie oil and gas go. Such defiance was “not ruled out,” to quote Carney on his own ambitions a yearago .The West’s response so far has been measured — remarkably so, given its leverage. Do the Laurentian elite and Cagey Carney believe these cards will never be played?As usual, the West is being straightforward. We await the prime minister’s next move — preferably before the referendum train pulls into the station.One last point. It's cheesy perhaps, even vindictive, but satisfying. After his demotion, we no longer hear the patronizing phrase “just transition” from former minister Jonathan Wilkinson, meant to sugar‑coat the wrecking of our economy.On behalf of millions of Western Canadians, we wish him a just transition to the back benches.
