The initial reaction to the recent Memorandum of Understanding regarding a pipeline from the prairies to the Pacific was celebration and the promise of renewed relationships. Most evident in her pleasure was Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.For the record, I hold her in high regard as easily the best premier in the country — boundless energy, free market instincts, a soft but determined edge, and a unique ability to say no with charm. However, she was way out over her skis regarding the MOU, acting like a giddy schoolgirl who has just been invited to her first prom.She also at times appeared to be the new Captain Canada, outdoing Ontario Premier Doug Ford as a saviour of the nation. Hardly a popular sentiment in Alberta. .AUBUT: Trudeau, Freeland, and Carney turned credentials, identity, and symbolism into substitutes for governing competence.So, what did the MOU resolve? Nothing, it only added uncertainty, confusion, and another layer of bureaucratic impediments and capital repelling approvals.The best review of this flawed document was a brief op-ed by Niels Veldhuis, the President of the Fraser Institute."By the fourth reading, the only objective conclusion I could reach was not that a pipeline would finally be built, but rather only governments could write a MOU that no Canadian could understand," he wrote.There are many reasons why this project is iffy, including especially the economic model. Expectations from experienced mid-streamers are a $20/barrel toll, plus $5/barrel to cover indigenous costs, plus up to a decade of delay to allow for “consultation." To that add the uncertain but significant costs of building and operating the Pathways CO2 project, a Carney requirement.To decarbonize, CO2 would be stripped and shipped to Cold Lake for injection. Which of the parties - the federal government, the provincial government or the energy sector would pay the additional significant costs was not addressed. The economic feasibility of the unproven technology makes it an open-ended risk. .It is significant that the energy requirements to drive the system to convert CO2 to a more durable form and to transport and store, must come from renewable or non CO2 emitting sources. In Northern Alberta, how so? Cost, feasibility, pipeline challenges, unquantified risks, energy sources, scalability, and the need for the sequestration to endure up to 1,000 years are slightly more problematic than writing a MOU. Many other problems have also come to my attention. The line, to be built with Canadian pipe, lacks Canadian capability to produce the minimum diameter of 34 inches. The cost to retool is significant and must be fully amortized over this one-off project. It would be central Canada steel plants as those in Regina and Camrose appear not to be under consideration. What a surprise.Jack Mintz, an entrepreneurial academic responsible for the establishment of the school of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, a frequent writer, and a Canadian treasure, estimates the costs of the pathway proposal could be as high as $10 per barrel. Expensive carbon dioxide pipelines are not established technology and are a safety risk..HORTON: Can the Right be ‘woke?’ .Back to the politics which this is all about. The Premier also allowed this project to demonstrate that Canada works and independence is not necessary, although she is fond of saying “an independent Alberta inside Canada," whatever that means. The referendum process is difficult for Premiers Smith and Moe as they must support Canada regardless of their beliefs.The good news is Premier Smith made a great recovery by suggesting the pipeline mimic the long established shipping of potash from Saskatchewan to Asia from a US port. Assuming the green radicals could not politically block an export facility, this might be the optimal solution. There is a coastal refining complex at Anacortes in northern Washington where Canadian oil is supplied by pipeline for refining and export. This could be interesting.The prime minister, with about half of his caucus up in arms over the prospect of a pipeline, has been defending this meaningless MOU, claiming there is demand for decarbonized oil; from whom was absent. Growth countries in Asia need energy and regardless of demonization by the United Nations and the likes of our Prime Ministers, past and present, oil remains the most efficient source among the range of fossil fuels and so called renewables. Transportation of oil is perfunctory from almost everywhere except Canada..It is hard to imagine any pipeline operator absorbing the incremental costs demanded by our climate obsessed Prime Minister. To please the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, and his European pals, Carney wants Canada to be an example of his brave new carbon free and mythical net zero world.It is no wonder he doesn't believe in markets - they are anathema for his top down, command and control, authoritative Bill C-5 world. C-5 grants him complete authority – so why seek approvals for Canada’s most significant major project? Does he want the project to fail?Regardless, his anti-West animus is again on display. But it is Central Canada with planes, trains, automobiles, and manufacturing that are responsible for 80% of CO2 along the emissions chain. He and the federal Liberals only target the industry in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia because we are defenceless. Imagine the political blowback if he required similar emission reductions in central Canada..MCTEAGUE: Bah Humbug — Ottawa's green obsession and the cost of Christmas feasting.Carney also believes, or is fibbing again, that the huge increase in the industrial carbon tax proposed in the MOU, will somehow just be absorbed with no ultimate impact on affordability. Not only does he not believe in the market, but he doesn’t understand it.Following the disaster of the National Energy Program in the 1980’s, how many times will we accept this arbitrary and unnecessary economic damage? In the last couple of decades, through equalization Alberta has gifted Canada about $600 billion.Canadians in other provinces are not our enemy - it is politicians like the Trudeaus, father and son, and now the international climate crusader, who create the damage and animosity. But all attempts of Westerners to fully participate in national decision making — including the power to protect us from this persistent unfairness — are denied. This pipeline is only an important symptom of a much larger, divisive, and enduring injustice. But as a project, the pipeline is just a pipe dream.
