POLCZER: Canada has itself to blame for begging for Trump’s tariff 'charity'

Will he or won’t he?

Even if US president Donald Trump delays, modifies, or outright cancels his latest tariff threats against Canada — as he seemed inclined to do on Wednesday — the damage is already done to the country's economic and national psyche. 

Or more precisely, was already done years ago, thanks to a decade of cancelling oil pipelines and petty squabbles over interprovincial trade.

And we’re the ones to blame. Not MAGA Theresa.

The mere possibility of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports has sent shockwaves through US-Canada trade relations, shattering long-held assumptions about economic cooperation and forcing Canada to rethink its dependence on its southern neighbour.

The latest round of turmoil began — or more accurately, continued — when Trump ‘confirmed’ the impending tariffs on the weekend, only to delay them another 30 days in a seemingly last-minute conversion to common sense.

Make no mistake, the ongoing pattern of uncertainty is a deliberate strategy to impose as much self-inflicted agony as a possible. Call it for what it is, emotional and economic intimidation and outright emotional abuse.

That's the point.

The temporary reprieve, secured through Canada’s commitment to strengthening border security and combating fentanyl trafficking, brought short-lived relief. But the deeper concern remains: Trump has demonstrated a willingness to use economic threats as leverage against America’s closest allies, a tactic that has rattled policymakers in Ottawa and beyond.

For Canada, the stakes are high. The US economy is ten times larger and far less reliant on trade, making Canada more vulnerable to economic coercion. 

And Canada is — and has been — almost exclusively at the magnanimous whims of the US for more than a generation in spite of self-inflicted bickering over things like interprovincial trade and official bilingualism.

The sudden urge to revive cancelled pipelines in any and all directions — ala Keystone, Energy East and Northern Gateway — is both a cause and an effect of that malaise. 

Notably, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe has given blanket pre-approval for 'all pipeline permits going east, west, or south received in Saskatchewan.... We encourage all provinces and the federal government to do the same.' There's a man who gets it.

Otherwise, coulda, shoulda, woulda. Hindsight is always 20/20. It’s a point driven home by Trump’s bellicose pronouncements, many, many times over. 

And in fact, it was Brian Mulroney who warned of the catastrophic effect of US protectionism when he negotiated the original Free trade Agreement in the 1980s. Now that chicken has come to roost.

On the bright side, Trump has forced Canada to be more or less unified in its response, despite differences between governments and regions like Alberta and Ontario on how best to fight back, outside the hockey rink

Does anyone really think Trump cares about a hockey game or booing the anthem unless it adds insult to injury?

Trudeau’s likely successors, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, both voiced support for retaliation during the Liberal leadership debate Tuesday. Conservative Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party leads in the polls ahead of an election later this spring, has also backed counter-tariffs. 

The public, too, has responded by rallying around the flag — and the hockey team — amid calls for consumer boycotts of US goods even if it is a moot point.

It may well be that cooler heads can prevail and a compromise can be reached. But the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s next move has left Canadians feeling rightly uneasy about the future. 

While the immediate threat has eased, a strong sense of regret has set in with the realization that this situation could have been avoided if only the country could have pushed past its petty political squabbles decades ago. 

Now economists warn that US tariffs could push Canada into recession within weeks — not months — with job losses in key industries, including an estimated 100,000 in Ontario alone. That doesn’t include tens of thousands in Alberta’s oil and agriculture sectors.

But Ottawa is not without leverage. Canada is the top foreign supplier of US energy, including crude oil, natural gas, and electricity. It also controls strategic materials vital to the US defence industry, such as germanium, a key component in semiconductors and high-end optics.

Not to mention 4.2 million barrels per day of oil.

Trudeau hinted over the weekend that Canada could reassess US access to those and other resources if tensions escalate, although regional leaders such as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have stubbornly insisted retaliation will only cause more harm to Canadians themselves.

Somebody still has to put food on the table and keep the lights on.

For now, Ottawa is focusing on extending the 30-day delay or convincing Trump to abandon the tariff threat altogether. But the long-term implications go beyond tariffs. 

Canada has always had trade disputes with the US, but these were historically seen as technical disagreements — not existential threats. 

Trump’s actions have shattered that assumption, leaving Canadians to grapple with the reality that their largest trading partner is also their biggest economic and geopolitical adversary.

With Trump’s second term in full swing and his nationalist economic policies firmly entrenched, Canada is preparing for an era of uncertainty and coercion. While mending relations with Washington remains a priority, the fundamental trust that once defined the longest undefended border has been fractured, perhaps irreparably.

It remains to be seen whether cooler heads in Washington — surely there are a few left — will step forward to repair the damage, or if Canada will be left with no choice but to forge a new economic path with or without the United States.

In any event, the damage will be felt long after Trump is gone. The only question is why it took so long for the hard truth to show. And whether it’s too late to do anything about it.

Or quietly become the 51st State.