Hymie Rubenstein, Editor of REAL Indigenous Report, is a retired Professor of Anthropology at the University of Manitoba and a Senior Fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.The results of the most important referendum question, stage one of Alberta's independence from Canada, spoke volumes about its viability. In six words, this was “crushed on the starting line.”The process died quickly at the starting line, with most voters saying “no” to a second referendum — a “real” referendum — to begin the difficult process of securing status as an independent nation. That didn’t happen because around 75% of Albertans said it wasn't the time to seek nationhood.This didn’t stop one diehard independence leader from quickly striking a defiant tone, vowing that “our movement isn’t stopping and we’re continuing to move forward.”Jeffrey Rath, a Calgary lawyer, told the BBC World Service's Newsday program that he sees Monday’s vote as a “first step” that has taught the movement some “valuable lessons.” With counting still underway, he predicted that hundreds of thousands of fellow residents of the province backed independence and insisted that “the math and the economics” all add up on his side of the argument.But as the counting continued, “math and the economics” kept subtracting from his side of the equation.When asked whether his movement would keep holding votes on independence until it got the result it wanted, he responded, “Why not?” suggesting psychological compulsion, not sound reason, was his driving motivation. Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, addressed frustrated Albertans on Tuesday and said he hears them. “The result does not change the reality of the situation,” said Bernier. “It does not change the fact that Ottawa treats Alberta as a subordinate, like a colony, like an ATM with a cowboy hat, and the result certainly does not mean that Albertans have chosen to accept the status quo.”.Still, the prevailing views of other politicians, community activists, and the most ordinary Albertans who voted against holding a binding referendum on independence from Canada ruled the day. Beyond their loyalty to Canada, the majority may have been well aware of the roadblocks to independence and the consequences of living with it.The decisive “no” vote may also have reflected the two largely ignored challenges that hinder efforts to leave Canada: the movement's lack of effective, coordinated leadership and the prohibitive costs independence would entail.Little has been written about these leadership and cost roadblocks to Alberta’s aspirations. Instead, most criticisms of independence have focused on two other issues: the politico-legal constraints that impede it and its chronically low past and present support.The dog’s breakfast of past and present advocacy groups, coalitions, and political parties favouring secession included the Alberta Prosperity Project, Stay Free Alberta, Let Alberta Decide, Let's Talk Alberta, Alberta Transition Council, Independence Party of Alberta, Republican Party of Alberta, and the Wildrose Independence Party.The number of factions favouring Alberta sovereignty gives new meaning to the motto “united we stand, divided we fall.”While the governing United Conservative Party under Premier Danielle Smith accommodated some of these groups by lowering the signature threshold for citizen-initiated petitions to trigger the referendum, Smith herself and the core party leadership officially campaigned to remain in Canada.The large number of pro-independence bodies confirms that Western alienation, rooted in economic and political grievances, has existed for decades. Still, opinion polls have never shown that most Albertans wish to separate from Canada, as the referendum results conclusively showed.Both secondary roadblocks are critical challenges. Both could be overcome, however — at least in theory — because there is a clearly defined legal and political path to independence detailed in the 2000 Clarity Act, and because public support for independence under the conditions of the Clarity Act may, at least theoretically, grow over time.Practically, this is highly unlikely because the two primary factors seem impossible to overcome: the absence of credible leadership and the painfully high costs of independence..On March 15, 2025, the day after Mark Carney was elected prime minister, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith introduced legislation that made it easier to trigger a referendum by lowering the required number of signatures by hundreds of thousands. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a group planning a sovereignty referendum petition, had enough people registered online to meet the new threshold.Some people took Smith's legislation as proof that she supported independence, an assumption she quickly refuted with numerous statements to the contrary.To be sure, numerous political parties in the Western provinces, believing there to be no other solution for stemming apparent “Western alienation” from Central Canada, have sought independence. These parties include the Western Canada Concept, the Western Independence Party, and the Western Block Party, among others. None ever achieved much success.That left Preston Manning, former leader of the Reform Party of Canada and opposition leader in the House of Commons, as perhaps the old guard's sole spokesperson. But his April 2, 2025, call for Western independence consisted mainly of inflammatory rhetoric, fear-mongering, and false allegations, including the specious claim that “large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it. The support for Western secession is therefore growing ….”That growth hit a brick wall Monday night.As for the financial argument against Albertan independence, several economists have argued that Western independence, particularly for Alberta, would be economically damaging. They point to potential capital flight, reduced tax revenue, and the need to develop costly new systems and infrastructure.Moreover, most independence movements are rooted in ethnocultural differences, as the Quebec example clearly shows. This is not the case in Alberta, whose citizens share the same basic culture as the rest of English-speaking Canada. Instead, Alberta’s independence movement has focused on narrow economic and political concerns, grounded in the belief that “the West is a key economic engine for the rest of the country and is contributing more to the rest of Canada than it receives in return.”Translation: Alberta would be better off on its own.What advocates of independence don't seem to appreciate is that the process of leaving Canada would not only be long, complicated, and expensive but would also require consent from the federal government as well as extensive negotiations with indigenous bands, several of which have vigorously expressed their opposition to independence (albeit simultaneously and hypocritically claiming “First Nations” sovereign status).Although these political and legal barriers are formidable — perhaps even insurmountable — they concern the process of leaving Confederation rather than the wisdom of doing so. The central questions are whether Alberta could peacefully negotiate independence from Canada and whether independence would improve its long-term economic prosperity..Drawing on Quebec's attempted secession and similar cases, several Western Canadian economists have argued that a newly created country would be far worse off economically than it is now.This is because people, companies, and capital would “leave the province in big numbers,” thereby severely shrinking the tax base.“Any time there's risk of separatism increasing, a lot of those corporations might shift their headquarters elsewhere, so we may see the corporate tax base leave Alberta to Toronto or Vancouver, just as we saw happen to Montreal,” one of these economists predicted.Then there is the “massive administrative cost of taking over federally run programs,” which would necessitate raising taxes, thus negating the “tax advantage” some independence seekers hype as one of Alberta's most significant selling points.To deter other provinces from leaving, “Ottawa could levy additional fees on the shipment of oil across the country.”An independent Alberta “could also be blocked from joining trade agreements of which Canada is currently part,” one of them said. A new Western nation would also have to develop its own currency and monetary policy, a massive cost for its relatively small economy.Those leaving Canada would also have to buy out the federal infrastructure within their borders. Finally, the new nation would lose the risk-sharing that comes with being part of a large, diverse federation, which would also translate into higher interest rates.The economic arguments against secession were heard again, even as the referendum results were still being counted.“It is a huge relief,” said Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “This vote to stay in Canada means that certainty has been established and that we can attract that investment. And that will benefit the economy, not just for Alberta, but for the country.”Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing acknowledged independence supporters’ concerns, which she said must be addressed to build a strong, united Canadian economy in the future.But with Albertans deciding to remain in Canada, Laing read the vote as a positive sign for business leaders and investors alike."Businesses, workers, and communities can feel more confident with this result,” Laing said. "Let's move forward, stronger together.”As for Premier Smith, she sternly warned the pro-independence faction of her United Conservative Party that if they can’t get behind a pro-Canada position, they should hand in their memberships.“The United Conservative Party is not an independence party, and for those few who cannot reconcile this fact and remain intent on dividing and turning our party into a vehicle for the independence movement, I would respectfully invite them to join a different party,” Smith said in a video posted to social media on October 21.Given the statements from Alberta’s highest-ranking elected politician and prominent business and other leaders, the independence movement seems destined to be a write-off for years to come.Hymie Rubenstein, Editor of REAL Indigenous Report, is a retired Professor of Anthropology at the University of Manitoba and a Senior Fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
