Two largely ignored challenges hinder efforts by Alberta and Saskatchewan to secede from Canada: the movement's lack of effective leadership and the prohibitive costs independence would entail.Little has been written about these two roadblocks to Western Canada's aspirations. Instead, most criticisms of independence have focused on the politico-legal constraints impeding it and its chronically low levels of support.Feelings of Western alienation based on economic and political grievances have existed for decades. Still, opinion polls have never shown that most Albertans or Saskatchewanians wish to separate from Canada. Support for secession is even lower in Manitoba and British Columbia..To be sure, these two roadblocks are critical challenges. Both could be overcome, however — at least in theory — because there is a clearly defined legal and political path to independence detailed in the 2000 Clarity Act, and because public support for secession adhering to the conditions of the Clarity Act may well grow over time, under this newly elected Liberal regime.Not so however, for the absence of credible leadership or what secession might cost, both of which seem intractable.On April 29, the day after Mark Carney was elected prime minister, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith introduced legislation that made it easier to trigger a referendum, lowering the number of required signatures by hundreds of thousands. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a group planning a sovereignty referendum petition, now has enough people registered online to meet the new threshold..WATCH: Alberta independence group unveils its referendum question.Some might take Smith's legislation as proof that she supports secession. This assumption would be incorrect, at least if we take the premier at her word, namely that she wants Alberta to remain part of Canada.."Acknowledging something exists [the secession movement] is not the same as fanning it," Smith said on May 8. "My job is to make sure it doesn't get higher. My job is to make sure it gets lower."The same holds for Scott Moe, Premier of Saskatchewan, who said his hypothetical referendum ballot would be cast in favour of a "united Canada.""I would vote for a strong and united Canada any day and every day and Saskatchewan to be part of that," the premier told reporters on May 6.Neither of the other two Western Canada premiers has expressed any support for independence..To be sure, numerous political parties in the Western provinces, believing there to be no other solution for stemming apparent "Western alienation" by Central Canada, have sought independence. Parties advocating Western independence include the Western Canada Concept, the Western Independence Party, and the Western Block Party. None have achieved much success, however.That leaves Preston Manning, former leader of the Reform Party of Canada and Opposition Leader in the House of Commons. But his April 2 call for Western independence consisted mainly of inflammatory rhetoric, fear-mongering, and false allegations, including the specious claim that "large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it. The support for Western secession is therefore growing …."As the probability of an independence referendum loom, May 8 data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that support in Alberta and Saskatchewan for their respective province to leave confederation is still very low (36% Alberta, 34% Saskatchewan). And those minorities shrink when assessing how serious the support is — few in Alberta (19%) or Saskatchewan (15%,) say they would "definitely" vote to leave were a referendum to be held..Canadian economists in Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C. have argued that Western secession, particularly for Alberta, would be economically damaging. They point to potential capital flight, reduced tax revenue, and the need to develop costly new systems and infrastructure.Most secession movements are rooted in ethnocultural differences. This is not so for Western Canada, a vast geographical region whose citizens share the same basic culture as the rest of English-speaking Canada. Instead, the West's independence movement is based on narrow economic and political concerns grounded in the belief that "the West is a key economic engine for the rest of the country and is contributing more to the rest of Canada than it receives in return." This says those who advocate leaving Canada believe western Canada would be better off on its own.What advocates of independence don't seem to appreciate is that the process of leaving Canada would not only be long, complicated, and expensive, it would need consent from the federal government as well as extensive negotiations with indigenous bands, several of which have vigorously expressed their opposition to independence (all the while simultaneously and hypocritically upholding their First Nations sovereign status.).While these political and legal constraints are formidable, perhaps even intractable, they boil down to process — how to escape from the existing constraints of confederation — rather than sound public policy. Were the West able to peacefully negotiate independence from the rest of Canada, would this enhance its long-term economic prosperity?Based on the example of Quebec's attempted secession and others like it, several Western Canada economists have argued that the newly created country would be far worse off economically than now.This is because people, companies, and capital would "leave the province in big numbers," thereby severely shrinking the tax base."Any time there's risk of separatism increasing, a lot of those corporations might shift their headquarters elsewhere, so we may see the corporate tax base leave Alberta to Toronto or Vancouver, just as we saw happen to Montreal," one of these economists predicted.Then there is the "massive administrative cost of taking over federally run programs," which would necessitate raising taxes, thus negating the "tax advantage" some independence seekers hype as one of Alberta's most significant selling points..To constrain other provinces from leaving, "Ottawa could levy additional fees on the shipment of oil across the country."An independent West "could also be blocked from joining trade agreements of which Canada is currently part," one of them said. A new Western nation would also have to develop its own currency and monetary policy, a massive cost for the relatively small size of its economy.Those leaving Canada would also have to buy out the federal infrastructure within their borders if they were to leave the country. Finally, the new nation would lose out on the risk-sharing accompanying being part of a large and diverse federation, which would also translate into higher interest rates.These two constraints and others like them say the secession movement is dead on arrival.Hymie Rubenstein, editor of REAL Indigenous Report, is a retired professor of anthropology at the University of Manitoba and a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
