RUSS: TransLink is on a collision course with energy scarcity

Geoff Russ is a writer and columnist based in West Vancouver.

There are a number of excellent public transit system in Canada. While they have their own issues and areas for improvement, those of Montreal and Toronto are exemplary by North American standards. Even smaller cities, like Ottawa and Victoria, have begun to expand their transit networks and shift more commuters away from vehicle travel to relieve congestion and ease pollution.

In Metro Vancouver, TransLink's network is the envy of many, and is in the process of bringing in new electrified express buses and a SkyTrain extension that will finally bring service very close to the University of British Columbia.

Public transit is excellent at getting people across cities in an orderly, predictable, and effective fashion, and most cities that have the capability to build such networks should do so — but, that can only happen with enough power to supply them.

TransLink has set an ambitious goal of electrifying itself to be a net-zero emitter by 2050. They are phasing out all use of fossil fuels in their fleet, including the replacement of diesel-powered buses with those powered by electric batteries. 

The issue is that electricity is not generated out of thin air, and it certainly is not free. It  has to come from somewhere, and comes with an unavoidable cost.

BC Hydro is the dominant provider of power in BC, but it is rarely examined or scrutinized in the context of rising demand for transit and other urban needs. There is an energy crunch afoot at BC Hydro that has been worsening for years.

BC Hydro has long relied on the plentiful, seemingly endless annual snowfalls to regenerate its capacity. Warmer winters in recent years have resulted in much lower levels of snowpack for the reservoirs that supply the generation of hydroelectric power.

As a consequence, the company has been compelled to pay for imported energy to meet demand, with about 20% of the electricity supply in 2024, and these shortfalls have not abated. These imports are often sourced from fossil-fuel-heavy sources, which defeats any progress made by BC's restrictive energy policies when it comes to its climate objectives.

Beyond the environmental impact, the energy imports carry a great financial cost, $1.4 billion, which only exacerbates the province's messy and deteriorating fiscal situation. Last month, the province's credit rating was downgraded yet again by Moody's and S&P due to concerns about the government's ability to manage its debt load.

Paying for more energy imports will inevitably be passed down to the consumer across the board, which will only add to TransLink's own financial woes. A recent report found that TransLink was due for a $600 million budget shortfall in 2026, and has proposed hiking ticket prices to cover the gap. 

Simply put, BC Hydro will be hard pressed to meet the expected growth in ridership caused by the ballooning population and expanded network. Other pressures on the current hydro regime include the electric vehicle mandate, intended to replace all retail sales of traditional combustion engines with EVs by 2035. Added to that will be greater energy demands created by new housing in cities like Vancouver, whose municipal councillors voted last year to rule out natural gas heating in new builds, and instead rely solely on renewables.

The provincial government can kick the can down the road as long as it likes, but it eventually will be forced to confront the imbalance between supply and demand for power. BC has to pre-empt this incoming crisis and take a serious look at energy sources.

Natural gas is the most obvious, with nuclear power phased out and unviable in the short term, while thermal coal-fired energy is highly polluting. Among fossil fuels, natural gas is among the cleanest and most plentiful in the short term.

Urban British Columbians often forget that the energy they use to power their laptops and drive their EVs is mostly sourced from the rural hinterland. Whether it is hydro in the mountains or natural gas in the Peace region in the northeast, their lifestyles rely on the labour and bounty of the lands they rarely visit or think about.

Urban BC needs to understand that they cannot exist apart from the rest of their province, and neither can TransLink. Metro Vancouver's transit system need not subject itself to a crisis.

There is plenty of available power from natural gas to alleviate the coming crisis and keep Vancouver as a model for public transit in Canada. The provincial government should have the guts to set aside, or even adjust, their ideological goals to safeguard the quality of life enjoyed in the cities.

Geoff Russ is a writer and columnist based in West Vancouver.