The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has a lot riding on Monday’s two Manitoba federal byelections..If the Conservatives flip Winnipeg South Centre’s reliably Liberal seat in 10 of the 11 past elections, that’ll send a strong message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s smug minority government. If they lose the reliably Conservative seat in Portage-Lisgar to People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier, that’ll tell them rural voters reject policies designed to woo suburban Toronto ridings while being weak on core cultural conservative values..Pundits cautiously say both riding scenarios are unlikely — but aren’t banking on their predictions..Ben Carr is running in Winnipeg South Centre to win the seat vacated by his father, longtime MP Jim Carr, who died last December. His main opponent is Conservative Damir Stipanovic. According to recent polls, Carr has a 20% lead..Two more byelections are being held in Quebec and Ontario..Liberal Anna Gainey is expected to handily win Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount in Quebec.. CPC attack ad against Bernier .Although it’s a tight race, the Conservatives appear poised to hold onto Ontario’s Oxford riding..But the main Conservative focus by far has been on Portage-Lisgar where a defeat of Bernier will deny him a seat in the House of Commons and hopefully compel the PPC to fold..That could bring back the 840,000 voters Conservatives lost to the PPC in the 2021 election. And it would prevent Bernier from hammering at issues in the House — laws allowing late-term abortion, “bogus” climate hysteria and wasted taxpayer dollars on green energy, and “toxic” transgender ideology infiltrating classrooms, to name a few. All are issues he rightfully accuses all parties of failing Canadians on..The Conservatives dismiss Bernier as an “opportunist” who parachuted into the riding, after failing to win two elections in his old Beauce, Quebec riding..Bernier left the Conservative Party and formed the PPC shortly after losing a leadership bid to Andrew Scheer, by a slim margin..But the main Conservative attack strategy has been to portray Bernier as a globalist “who can’t be trusted” because he attended one World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Switzerland 15 years ago. “Unlike Maxime Bernier, I will never attend the World Economic Forum or join up with groups who don’t put Canada first,” tweeted Branden Leslie, who is running for the Conservatives in Portage-Lisgar..Well, of course he wouldn’t. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has forbidden party members to do so..Poilievre has demanded that Bernier “come clean” on why he attended the WEF. Maybe he should pose the question to former prime minister Stephen Harper who sent Bernier — his foreign affairs minister at the time — to the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Bernier waved off the charge that he’s connected to the WEF as “kind of funny.” “He (Poilievre) implies that I’m a globalist when I’m the only anti-globalist politician in Canada.”.“Not only do I reject the World Economic Forum and their ideas, I rejected the United Nations and their globalist agendas.”.The Conservative strategy is perplexing, considering Bernier’s policies and the fact that he was virtually the only politician to initially challenge federal COVID-19 mandates supported by the Manitoba provincial government. Portage-Lisgar voters, many of whom opposed these mandates that denied them the right to attend church services, will remember that Bernier was arrested and jailed for defying the mandates that many of them were also fined and jailed for..The riding was represented by the popular Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader who resigned. Bergen won the 2021 election with 53% of the vote and a 31% lead over the PPC candidate received 21.4%..A Mainstreet Research poll last week suggests Bernier has gained some ground with 27% of the riding’s voters supporting Bernier. However, he trails behind Leslie, Bergen’s former campaign manager, said to have 41% voter support..Leslie, whose family farms in the riding, has worked as a lobbyist in Ottawa most notably for the Grain Growers of Canada. He has been involved in the fight to protect the viability of the family farm, pushing to exempt farmers from the carbon tax and opposing the Liberal’s plan to reduce fertilizer use..Bernier has campaigned against him arguing that he is a “fake” Conservative who has been working with the Trudeau government to implement net zero emission by 2050 to appease globalists. Bernier has vowed to withdraw from the Paris Accord the Conservatives voted for in 2017. And so, the argument of who is a globalist and who is a fake Conservative has gone back and forth..Also, the PPC accused the conservatives of widely distributing ‘homophobic” flyers in a last-ditch attack on Bernier. If that’s so, the Conservatives have taken a page out of the NDP’s dirty tactics playbook. Daniel Tyrie, PPC executive director, tweeted photos of the flyer with a picture of Bernier wearing a rainbow-colored T-shirt at the 2016 Ottawa Capital Pride festival..The PPC wondered why the Conservatives “implied” it was wrong for Bernier to show past support. The flyer entitled “Facts About Maxime Bernier” also associated him with Quebec separatism, the Chinese Communist Party, the Liberals, and of course the WEF..Nonetheless, Bernier has stated that if elected he’ll support Poilievre — on condition. “I will vote with Poilievre when he will have the courage to be a conservative politician and I will shame him when he won’t. It’s a win-win position.”.Bernier also said regardless of the election results, no one should celebrate getting rid of him or the PPC..“If I win that would be great. If I don’t win, I’ll be back for the next general election.”
