Brock Stephenson is a political commentator from B.C.It's David Eby's British Columbia, we're just living in it, and after the October 19 election it will probably remain that way. But it's no sure thing and for the next three weeks he's going to be looking over his shoulder.Eight months ago, it looked like David Eby and his BC NDP would sail to victory over the BC United and form a second majority government in the 2024 provincial election. Eby would be leading his party for the first time after succeeding his popular colleague, NDP Premier John Horgan. (Horgan had stepped down due to a cancer diagnosis and frustration over the very pricey Royal BC Museum rebuild.)Eby succeeded Horgan as premier in November 2022 and his time in the top office has been marked by caution and (luckily for him,) lack of an electable alternative. But, instead of assembling a new team and facing off against the opposition right after his leadership win, he delayed the inevitable cabinet shuffle by three weeks until after the end of the Fall 2022 legislative session. Then, he set a serious of ambitious targets relating to healthcare, education, public safety, and housing. Any one of those targets alone could have been a cornerstone of his premiership; together he just created a busy agenda that left him vulnerable to criticism.Eby did however benefit from an opposition that was busy fighting its own internal battles.Meanwhile, new BC Liberal leader Kevin Falcon returned to politics after a decade in the private sector with a leadership platform to rename his party in order to distance them from the tainted Liberal brand but also appeal to both liberals and conservatives.However, the rebrand to BC United was a disaster from the get go. The 2020 election had seen the NDP achieve its long-desired majority government, and also the continued decline of the once dominant BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson's leadership.The party continued the decline that had begun during Gordon Campbell's third election victory in 2009 and became a full-blown problem in the 2017 loss under Christy Clark — who tried to hold power for a few weeks while the NDP/Green alliance sat waiting for a turn at the wheel. Kevin Falcon, both a link to the Campbell past and a fresh start after a decade out of politics, won the leadership after five long rounds of voting. Falcon's first priority was renaming the party. The new name, the disastrous rebrand and unwillingness to take a contrasting position to the NDP on most non-fiscal issues killed his party and left Eby without a serious threat to his leadership.Falcon's polled highest right after his election as leader and never reached that height again. He and the BC United never found its footing as a renewed, effective opposition. In fact, he inadvertently helped the once-fringe BC Conservatives coalesce into the viable alternative it is today by kicking veteran northern BC MLA John Rustad out of caucus over climate skepticism.In September 2023, a second MLA chose to join Rustad, who had become leader of the long-suffering Conservative Party of BC. By January 2024, former BC Liberal leadership candidate and well-liked MLA Ellis Ross threw his lot with federal politics and left a major hole in Falcon's party — that of an indigenous MLA who was pro-development.Eby was relishing his opposition's division and misery.Eby quickly capitalized on Kevin Falcon's disastrous rebrand of the once dominant BC Liberal Party and retained two NDP held seats in June 2023 by-elections. Governing parties in BC seldom hold seats they vacate in by-elections, signalling a resounding defeat for the newly renamed BC United. This could have been an opportunity for the BC United to change course but in the aftermath of the by-election defeats there was no notable shift in leadership team.The NDP did not just hold their seats, the party increased its margin of victory in a safe Vancouver seat and saw Falcon's candidate fall to fourth place in a Victoria area seat — where the BC Conservatives surprisingly finished second by raising a stink about transit services.This would be an early sign that a new opposition threat was to emerge.Then in fall 2023, a real threat to Eby's electoral victory rose up from Ottawa. Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre's national poll numbers began a strong and steady rise. By February 2024, Rustad's Conservative Party of BC began to also show a critical mass — catching and then quickly overtaking BC United in the polls.It would be an early sign of the BC United's impending fate. Announcements of BC United MLAs not seeking re-election quickly piled up. The party cancelled its biannual convention scheduled for Richmond in April — a lack of donation revenue was rumoured to be a driving factor.At the end of May, a third and then a fourth MLA jumped ship to Rustad's party. One of the MLAs who crossed to the BC Conservatives was Eleanor Sturko. She was elected in a by-election during Falcon leadership, was closely aligned with him, and was made a prominent face of BC United. This was a major hit to the BC United, losing a prominent MLA (who is now a moderating force in Rustad's party.)Second quarter fundraising numbers showed Rustad was outraising Falcon. A staff exodus and a fifth MLA removed what remaining doubt there was as to who the main opposition would be to Eby, in October.Finally in late August just days after his big annual fundraiser flopped, Kevin Falcon threw in the towel with the express purpose of stopping the NDP. With only one choice left on the table, free enterprise, conservative, centre-right, and anti-NDP voters threw their money at the John Rustad-led Conservative Party of BC. NDP fundraising also improved with a stronger contrast against Rustad than the inch-to-the-right of the NDP BC United Party. However, by September, NDP fundraising e-mails noted (in past tense) that they had missed fundraising targets! In September, Poilievre expressed his clear preference for a Rustad provincial government.David Eby should still win. John Rustad will have to hold 28 BC United seats and pick up a further 19 more to get a majority. Rustad’s problem is that he will build up massive majorities in some constituencies while losing by a handful in many more. Of course, in February 2024, when the opposition was at its most divided, it was likely that Eby would have significantly increased his majority from the 57 MLAs last time. Rustad's chances are certainly better now. The battle for the Vancouver suburbs will determine who forms a majority government on October 19. At the moment, Eby’s candidates have a strong organizing advantage that incumbency brings in many of these ridings.But, after a momentous realignment, Pierre Poilievre and his proxy Conservative Party of BC have David Eby on the run. In September, Eby suggested he would dump the carbon tax — something BC has set the agenda on in Canada even under non-NDP governments.Eby also called for involuntary treatment for the hardest case drug addicts. Former civil liberties lawyer David Eby might wonder what's gotten into him, as more of the BC Conservatives' policy planks make their way into the NDP's platform.But, he can take nothing — nothing — for granted.Brock Stephenson is a political commentator from B.C. He served in the Office of the Prime Minister during the Harper administration.
