In the October 5 election, Quebecers elected a minority Parti Québécois (PQ) government. It lacks both public support for a sovereignty referendum and the seats needed to approve a referendum question without opposition support.Worse, it has no real leverage over Ottawa. That is the price of an all-or-nothing strategy when the people you represent will not follow you all the way. Ottawa can call your bluff, leaving you with nothing to offer in return.More importantly, this approach shifts the burden of proof. Instead of requiring federal Liberals to defend their policies and constitutional vision, sovereigntists must explain why independence is viable. That should concern anyone seeking to establish an Alberta independence party or turn the United Conservative Party (UCP) into one.Many Albertans who voted Option 2 fear Canada's decline will drag Alberta down. Their concerns about their families' future are entirely understandable.However, an Angus Reid poll released October 16 found that 60% of Option 2 supporters mainly wanted to send Ottawa a message, while only 37% actually wanted independence. Since Option 2 received roughly 25% of the vote, those figures hardly make the case for a governing party to adopt an independence agenda.A political party must win elections, govern, and deliver results. The UCP should therefore focus on winning the next election rather than promoting independence. An internal struggle over independence could weaken Premier Danielle Smith's party and benefit the NDP. That would not be progress for Alberta.Quebec offers a cautionary example. Although independence enjoys substantially more support there, the PQ has not won a majority since 1998. Its victories in 2012 and 2026 both produced minority governments..Yet its latest minority was not inevitable. A Léger poll suggested the PQ could have received 35% rather than 28% without its referendum promise. On October 20, pollster Jean-Marc Léger stated, “The referendum clearly cost him his majority.” Moreover, 67% of Quebecers oppose a referendum during this mandate.However, the cost extends beyond elections. Since its October 30, 1995, referendum, Quebec has lacked the constitutional recognition of Quebec as a distinct society that former prime minister Brian Mulroney sought through the Meech Lake Accord. That recognition remains absent from former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau's 1982 constitutional settlement.Critics can rightly point out that former Quebec premier François Legault's autonomist government also failed to secure constitutional gains. Yet his government never articulated a positive vision of renewed federalism or a credible strategy to achieve it.This reveals a broader intellectual failure. Federal Liberals have rarely had to defend their constitutional vision against a well-developed alternative for Canada. Meanwhile, many Quebec thinkers continue to argue for weak-willed independence, while fewer focus on workable constitutional reforms. Political scientist Christian Dufour criticized this tendency in his 2015 column Le boulet souverainiste (The Sovereigntist Ball and Chain).Similarly, conservative thinking on constitutional renewal has languished since Mulroney. The Calgary School helped shape modern Canadian conservatism and influenced former prime minister Stephen Harper, but who is carrying that torch today?Quebec Conservative leader Éric Duhaime's recent book, Destination Autonomy, is one of too few contributions in that direction.We need more proposals for provincial autonomy and renewed federalism, rather than devoting scarce intellectual resources to an exit that may never materialize..Still, Quebec Premier and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) has signalled openness to cooperation with Alberta and other conservative provincial governments. Such cooperation could allow conservatives and Quebec nationalists to press Ottawa on shared concerns, including immigration targets.Equalization could also become a negotiating point. Since PSPP has treated it as a consolation prize, what would he seek in exchange for supporting a revised formula?Importantly, lowering immigration targets and revising the equalization formula do not require constitutional amendments. They require precise demands and enough public attention to make refusing them politically costly.Nor should anyone assume that federal Liberals cannot change course. Since former prime minister Justin Trudeau left office, the party has changed its energy and climate rhetoric considerably. Prime Minister Mark Carney maintained his energy agreement with Alberta despite Steven Guilbeault's resignation from cabinet. Political pressure can produce results.Our objectives should remain firm: reverse the current course and secure a brighter future for the next generation. Our methods, however, must remain strategic.I grew up in Quebec and have seen the cost of 30 years of all-or-nothing politics, with nothing to show for it. Alberta should not repeat that mistake.Instead, we should shift the burden of proof by making the federal Liberals defend the constitutional order they have championed.We should also work towards a positive vision of a renewed Canadian federation and build the alliances needed to advance it.Jean-François Thibault, P.Eng., lives in Calgary, Alberta, and is the co-founder and CEO of Fortitude Sales Development Inc.
