With the Alberta election just over two months away (May 29), all signs point to voters in Calgary being the decision makers and could even determine Justin Trudeau’s fate, says Michelle Garner Rempel, CPC MP for Calgary Nose Hill..In a newsletter released Monday, Rempel Garner says Trudeau’s deal with New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh to prop up the Liberal government will have ramifications for the Alberta NDP.. Jagmeet Singh .“Unlike other political parties in Canada, the federal NDP and the provincial NDP are formally one party united under a governance arrangement,” says Rempel Garner. “This means the decisions the federal NDP makes in Ottawa are directly reflected on the provincial party's decisions and vice versa.”.“Putting it very mildly,” she adds, “Calgary voters have an unfavourable view of Trudeau and his Liberal party. So, to win Calgary voters, provincial NDP leader Rachel Notley has to put distance between herself and Trudeau” at a time “when many Calgarians would like nothing more than to see Trudeau defeated in a general election.”.“Every time Singh gets closer to Trudeau, Notley gets farther from the premier's office.” .Singh is between a rock and a hard place this week, says Rempel Garner, facing a vote put forward by the federal Conservatives that would force Trudeau’s chief of staff, Katie Telford, to testify to a House committee about a CSIS warning to the Liberals about potential foreign election interference, something the Liberals do not want to happen..Does Singh signal to his caucus to vote against the motion? .“Notley will not want Singh to give her competition, the United Conservative Party, any further proof points that the NDP are Liberal toadies,” says Rempel Garner. “Singh will find himself in a similar position just over two weeks from now when he will have to decide whether to support the Liberal's federal budget, which will be a confidence motion.”.“Suppose the budget doesn't include what Singh negotiated for his party in their agreement with the Liberals or contains measures likely to be unpopular in Alberta. He risks the NDP's fortunes in Alberta if he supports an unpopular budget. But if he votes it down, he'll be in a federal election.”.On Singh’s side is Trudeau's polling numbers that mean the Liberals cannot afford to go to a federal election right now, says Rempel Garner.. Justin Trudeau .“So, now, Trudeau might be more amenable to approving some of Singh's demands, including if he wanted to force Telford to testify,” she says. “Bluntly put, the federal NDP's fundraising numbers have been lacklustre. With two provincial elections (Alberta and Manitoba) where the NDP expects to perform well, activist resources to run campaigns will be stretched thin.”.Another factor facing Singh is an increase in federal Conservative support in the NDP's traditional base of support amongst unionized labour..This puts the NDP under pressure from their provincial wings to show a contrast with Trudeau, says Rempel Garner..“And that means Justin Trudeau, for once, needs to care about Calgary voters. The last thing his federal Liberal party needs is an accidental federal election triggered by pushing the federal NDP too far on issues that will alienate the Calgarians their provincial cousins need to woo over the next two months,” she says. “The NDP also must manage the expectations of their far-left flank, who may not be enamoured with Trudeau, but also expect the NDP to hold up certain leftist policies that are not necessarily popular in the right-of-centre leaning city of Calgary.”.“Of course, the Alberta NDP would love it if their political fortunes didn't live or die in Calgary, either. The city is showing signs of weariness with the left-of-centre politicians it currently has.”.A Think HQ poll last fall said Mayor Jyoti Gondek had a 35% approval rating, down from 38% last spring, while 55% of those polled disapproved of her performance in her first year..“So, the smart money on how the federal NDP will approach the federal Liberals lies in how Calgary voters will receive these actions,” says Rempel Garner..“This week's question is whether the federal NDP has any smart money to spend.”
