THOMSON: Let's take our gas and go!

Yesterday the Liberal government announced its intent to impose regulations on Canada’s oil and gas sector. It would see emissions capped 35 per cent below 2019 levels. It’s all part of the government’s plan to achieve net-zero by 2050. The Western provinces could play a significant role in helping Canada achieve this — by leaving confederation.I wrote that first paragraph a bit tongue in cheek as I admittedly identify as a reformed Western separatist. Personally I don’t think that Canada is worth sacrificing for the whims of green obsessed radicals in Ottawa, but the longer this nonsense goes on, the less I’m sure of that.It’s simple math really.According to government statistics, Canada’s oil and gas sector accounts for nearly a third of Canada’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It’s also well established that 95% of Canada’s oil production, and all its natural gas production, is located in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) which encompasses Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.If the estern provinces were to secede, Canada would immediately reduce its GHG emissions by one third. Granted it would also lose one third of its population, and 80% of its agricultural production, but you can rest assured that the prime minister, and his eco-zealot Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, would happily argue the good sense of those trade-offs at their next Davos summit.Meanwhile, the Western provinces unencumbered from Ottawa could form a trade union, not dissimilar to the European Union. They would then be free to capitalize on exporting liquified natural gas (LNG) to countries like Poland, Greece, and Germany who came begging to Canada but were turned away by Prime Minister Trudeau who stated that no compelling “business case” existed, while it very clearly did.Not only would it make the former Western provinces richer than Saudi Arabia, it would also, ironically, have a more meaningful impact on global GHG’s.LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal, and by reducing the developing world’s reliance on coal large reductions may be achievable. It would also offer European nations the ability to forego their need of Russian energy exports and hamper Putin’s imperialistic war efforts in Ukraine.Of course there is the matter of secession itself, but that’s really a small trifle all things considered.After all according to our prime minister “there is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada” and we are the world’s “first postnational state.” The separation of the Western provinces should be regarded no differently than the spectacle of watching a glacier calve. It’s certainly nothing that those who adhere to this post-nationalism philosophy should begrudge.The biggest hurdle would be how to resolve the existing treaties between the various indigenous nations of Canada, the Crown, and the breakaway provinces. It poses a difficult obstacle, but not an insurmountable one perhaps.According to information from Careers in Energy, “in 2021 there were approximately 13,000 Indigenous workers in Canada’s energy industry — representing 7.3% of the energy labour force.” Recognizing that indigenous nations are not a monolith; many might welcome an opportunity to be free of the Indian Act and sit as equal partners in government and benefactors of development and export of the lands natural resources. Certainly it poses an opportunity in stark contrast to the centuries of broken promises and inaction of a detached and distant bureaucracy.Of course all of this is conjecture… for now.In an ideal world Ottawa would administer and manage the nation through the sparse and judicious enactment of policies which would allow the provinces, entrepreneurs, and industry, to operate responsibly, while maximizing the generation of wealth, and jobs.But we don’t live in an ideal world and Ottawa held hostage by ideologically meddlesome madmen. Their latest federal edict prompted Alberta Premier Daniel Smith to release a statement yesterday condemning the proposed regulations:“Alberta’s government is actively exploring the use of every legal option, including a constitutional challenge and the use of the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act. We will not stand idly by while the federal government sacrifices our prosperity, our constitution and our quality of life for its extreme agenda.”While neither Premier Scott Moe or Wab Kinew have yet to weigh in on the matter, it is likely that they will side with their Alberta colleague, and rightly so because their provinces will be unduly affected as well.But ultimately this is a move that should concern all Canadians, not just those in the Western provinces because according to the statement released by Smith:“The evidence is overwhelming. Three reports from reputable firms have shown that these regulations will sucker-punch Canada’s economy, a million barrels cut every day according to S&P Global, $28 billion a year in lost GDP according to Deloitte, and up to 150,000 lost jobs according to the Conference Board of Canada.The losses to GDP, means billions a year will disappear from the economy. Billions that won't be going towards new schools, hospitals and roads, all for a reckless ideological scheme that will not reduce global emissions”Ouch.So, while pundits in Ottawa may try to place the blame for the volatility of Canada’s confederation on the shoulders of upstart prairie premiers, the fault line where the instability emanates from can be traced directly to 80 Wellington Street (the PMO's working office.) It is his job to fix it, and if he can’t, or is unwilling, then it’s time for an election.