Recently, president-elect Donald Trump began joking about Canada being the 51st state, with Justin Trudeau as its governor. Then he joked about it some more.Now he has gone so far as to say he would consider using “economic force” to merge Canada with the United States. As he put it, “You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better national security. Don't forget: We basically protect Canada.”The idea of joining the United States probably has more potential support in Alberta than other parts of Canada. In fact, there is already a 51st state movement that aspires to make Alberta itself the next American state.There are strong historical reasons for this aspiration.In 2011, university of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman wrote an academic article entitled, “The American Imprint on Alberta Politics.” It details how strong American influence has been on Alberta since its early years.For example, “In 1911, when Americans accounted for only 3 percent of Canada's population, they constituted 22 percent of Albertans, and Americans comprised 30 percent of Alberta’s immigrants between 1900 and 1920. This led an Alberta MP to declare in Parliament that his province ‘might be regarded as a typical American state.’”Later, the discovery of oil led to a further wave of American influence: “a geologist from a Danish-American community discovered the province’s largest oil field, and between 1955 and 1970, nine of the Calgary Petroleum Club’s fifteen presidents were Americans.In short, Americans and American political ideas have had more influence in Alberta than the other provinces and this would provide some basis for Albertans being more receptive to merging with the U.S. than other Canadians.But the key question is, would Canada joining the U.S. be beneficial?Certainly, there would be economic benefits, at least in the short-term. The U.S. is our largest market for oil, so the oil industry would flourish for sure. However, once the Democrats get back into power, as they inevitably will, a new Green New Deal could easily scuttle those economic benefits. Thus, any economic benefits may be transitory.Then there are the political implications. For generations Albertans have complained about their lack of influence in Ottawa. This is the basis of the case for Alberta independence — the federal government can enact policies harmful to Alberta and we are powerless to do anything about them. That’s why we got Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program, as well as Justin Trudeau’s anti-energy policies.If Canada joined the U.S., Alberta would be out from under Ottawa’s boot. That would be nice. But Alberta would then be under Washington, D.C.’s boot. Is that an improvement? Maybe. We would have some representation in the House of Representatives and the Senate (as Alberta or Canada), although the number of our elected officials would be small.It’s also important to consider that the larger the country, the less influence a particular citizen or sub-national jurisdiction can have on the national government. This means that the votes of individual Albertans would be drowned amongst the 350 — 390 million people (if all of Canada joined). And Alberta’s representatives would have a negligible voice in national affairs. That’s hardly a solution to Alberta’s lack of influence in Ottawa.Next, consider the political impact of Canadians on American politics. In an October 2024 poll, the Environics Institute found that 60 percent of Canadians supported Kamala Harris and only 21 percent supported Donald Trump. If Canada had been part of the U.S. in November 2024, it’s quite possible Harris would have won the election. It has been the norm for decades that Canadians support the Democratic presidential nominee by overwhelming percentages.Prof. Wisemen notes that due to the influence of Canadian political culture on Alberta, if it became “the fifty-first state, even Alberta’s American-anchored southern districts would likely vote predominantly for Democrats.”He may be incorrect about southern Alberta, but it’s likely most of the Canadian part of the expanded U.S. would vote Democrat, plunging the country into perpetual Democrat dominance at the national level. Electorally, the Republicans would be confined to certain states and regions. Such hard-left Democratic one-party rule would be devastating to the country and perhaps the world. Both the new Canadian part and original American part of the U.S. would suffer long-term economic and political harm.So, there may be some short-term economic benefits if Canada were to join the U.S. But the ensuing Democratic political dominance at the national level would soon undermine those benefits.This means that a trade agreement cementing the strong economic ties between Canada and the U.S. is a far superior option to Canada joining the U.S. Instead of Canada and the U.S. getting married, we should just be really good “friends with benefits” — trade and economic benefits, that is.
Recently, president-elect Donald Trump began joking about Canada being the 51st state, with Justin Trudeau as its governor. Then he joked about it some more.Now he has gone so far as to say he would consider using “economic force” to merge Canada with the United States. As he put it, “You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better national security. Don't forget: We basically protect Canada.”The idea of joining the United States probably has more potential support in Alberta than other parts of Canada. In fact, there is already a 51st state movement that aspires to make Alberta itself the next American state.There are strong historical reasons for this aspiration.In 2011, university of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman wrote an academic article entitled, “The American Imprint on Alberta Politics.” It details how strong American influence has been on Alberta since its early years.For example, “In 1911, when Americans accounted for only 3 percent of Canada's population, they constituted 22 percent of Albertans, and Americans comprised 30 percent of Alberta’s immigrants between 1900 and 1920. This led an Alberta MP to declare in Parliament that his province ‘might be regarded as a typical American state.’”Later, the discovery of oil led to a further wave of American influence: “a geologist from a Danish-American community discovered the province’s largest oil field, and between 1955 and 1970, nine of the Calgary Petroleum Club’s fifteen presidents were Americans.In short, Americans and American political ideas have had more influence in Alberta than the other provinces and this would provide some basis for Albertans being more receptive to merging with the U.S. than other Canadians.But the key question is, would Canada joining the U.S. be beneficial?Certainly, there would be economic benefits, at least in the short-term. The U.S. is our largest market for oil, so the oil industry would flourish for sure. However, once the Democrats get back into power, as they inevitably will, a new Green New Deal could easily scuttle those economic benefits. Thus, any economic benefits may be transitory.Then there are the political implications. For generations Albertans have complained about their lack of influence in Ottawa. This is the basis of the case for Alberta independence — the federal government can enact policies harmful to Alberta and we are powerless to do anything about them. That’s why we got Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program, as well as Justin Trudeau’s anti-energy policies.If Canada joined the U.S., Alberta would be out from under Ottawa’s boot. That would be nice. But Alberta would then be under Washington, D.C.’s boot. Is that an improvement? Maybe. We would have some representation in the House of Representatives and the Senate (as Alberta or Canada), although the number of our elected officials would be small.It’s also important to consider that the larger the country, the less influence a particular citizen or sub-national jurisdiction can have on the national government. This means that the votes of individual Albertans would be drowned amongst the 350 — 390 million people (if all of Canada joined). And Alberta’s representatives would have a negligible voice in national affairs. That’s hardly a solution to Alberta’s lack of influence in Ottawa.Next, consider the political impact of Canadians on American politics. In an October 2024 poll, the Environics Institute found that 60 percent of Canadians supported Kamala Harris and only 21 percent supported Donald Trump. If Canada had been part of the U.S. in November 2024, it’s quite possible Harris would have won the election. It has been the norm for decades that Canadians support the Democratic presidential nominee by overwhelming percentages.Prof. Wisemen notes that due to the influence of Canadian political culture on Alberta, if it became “the fifty-first state, even Alberta’s American-anchored southern districts would likely vote predominantly for Democrats.”He may be incorrect about southern Alberta, but it’s likely most of the Canadian part of the expanded U.S. would vote Democrat, plunging the country into perpetual Democrat dominance at the national level. Electorally, the Republicans would be confined to certain states and regions. Such hard-left Democratic one-party rule would be devastating to the country and perhaps the world. Both the new Canadian part and original American part of the U.S. would suffer long-term economic and political harm.So, there may be some short-term economic benefits if Canada were to join the U.S. But the ensuing Democratic political dominance at the national level would soon undermine those benefits.This means that a trade agreement cementing the strong economic ties between Canada and the U.S. is a far superior option to Canada joining the U.S. Instead of Canada and the U.S. getting married, we should just be really good “friends with benefits” — trade and economic benefits, that is.
