All the fashionable people say we need to stop using fossil fuels. The carbon released from burning fossil fuels is heating up the earth and will result in disaster, they claim. Thankfully, we have alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power. Problem solved..It all sounds so good until reality sets in..Sure, green energy sources can produce some energy and that’s better than nothing. But with current technology, they are nowhere near being able to replace the vast, reliable, and dependable energy we get from fossil fuels.. Peter ZeihanAuthor Peter Zeihan .At least this is the view of the well-respected geopolitical strategist, Peter Zeihan. Many Albertans first heard of Zeihan a few years ago when he wrote a book, The Accidental Superpower, arguing Alberta would be better off joining the United States..His most recent book, published last year, is The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. In it he describes what he believes will occur in the world economy over the next decade or two. It’s not pretty, because he expects the post-World War Two international trading system — which he calls the 'Order' — to be disrupted, leading to hardships for many countries. The good news is that Canada and the United States are best suited to weather that storm because North America uniquely has the resources to be self-sufficient in energy, food production and manufacturing..One topic he discusses is climate change and fossil fuels. Zeihan himself is convinced that climate change is happening and that it’s being driven by human activity like the burning of fossil fuels. In fact, his own home in Colorado is powered by solar panels. He’s a true believer in green energy technology, which he simply calls “greentech.” That is, Zeihan holds “progressive” views on global warming and the need to transition away from fossil fuels. But as a geopolitical strategist, he must deal with reality, not with wishful thinking. To maintain the respect his business depends on, he has to tell the cold, hard truth, and not entertain fantasies of environmental utopia..Zeihan understands that the current lifestyles and standards of living of most people in the world require oil, and this will not soon change. As he puts it, “we are nowhere near being ‘done’ with oil.”.Zeihan is all in favour of wind and solar power. But as he points out, most parts of the world do not have enough wind or sunshine to make those alternatives viable: “The unfortunate fact is that greentech in its current form simply isn’t useful for most people in most places — either to reduce carbon emissions or to provide a substitute for energy inputs in a more chaotic, post-Order world.”.Even in those places where greentech is viable, it is not reliable. The sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow. This means that “greentech today is so unreliable in most locations that those localities that do attempt greentech have no choice but to maintain a full conventional system for their total peak demand — at full cost.”.Greentech does produce a growing amount of energy, but in its current form it can — at best — reduce fossil fuel demand by about a dozen percentage points..Fossil fuels are quite remarkable, when you think about it. Zeihan writes, “Fossil fuels are so concentrated that they are literally ‘energy’ in physical form.” By contrast, greentech requires lots of space for solar panels and wind turbines — lots and lots of space..The long and short of it is fossil fuels will continue to be the dominant forms of energy for the foreseeable future. Sure, there are a few places where wind and solar can make a difference, but as Zeihan notes, “Nearly all other locations will remain dependent upon more traditional fuels for the vast majority of their energy needs.”.Therefore, the reports of the imminent death of fossil fuels are greatly exaggerated. This is good news for Alberta. Our oil and gas will remain in high demand for a long time to come. There is no need to transition to other sources of energy because we don’t yet have an alternative energy source that can do the job..As Sarah Palin would say, drill, baby, drill!
