Recently, candidates from the group Take Back Alberta won all nine open seats on the United Conservative Party’s board. This represented a grassroots uprising against the party’s establishment. According to TBA’s spokesman David Parker (as quoted by Rick Bell), it also represented a “Wildrose takeover of the party.” That’s very plausible, considering former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith also won the UCP’s leadership..Within months, the UCP will face Rachel Notley’s NDP in a provincial election, and the NDP has been polling well in recent weeks. Part of this success, as Parker astutely pointed out, is that “Notley has done a very good job of covering up the horrific disease that is socialism.” More importantly, however, was what Parker said next: “Albertans are not socialists. When they’re given the option they are going to pick conservatism. But is Alberta still Alberta? That is the question.”.Yes, that is the key question: “is Alberta still Alberta?”.Alberta has been changing in recent decades. So-called “progressive” ideas have become more widely accepted than ever before. This helps to explain why NDP support is holding strong in recent polling — although there are other important factors as well. For example, the Alberta Liberal Party always collapses whenever there is a Trudeau as prime minister, leaving a void on the left side of Alberta’s political spectrum that gets filled by the NDP..Unfortunately, it’s also possible Alberta could be in the early stages of the path that California has travelled over the last few decades. Once, California had a strong and competitive Republican Party. It elected Governor Ronald Reagan in 1966, and California voted for Reagan in the presidential elections of 1980 and 1984. It also voted for George Bush, Sr. in 1988. Since then, however, California has become a deep blue state. Republicans can no longer win state-wide positions..As a 2018 research paper for the Public Policy Institute of California put it, “For many years, California voted slightly Republican in statewide elections. But that began to change in the 1980s. Today, California is one of the most Democratic states at all levels of government.”.In this political sense, California is no longer California, and Alberta could be on a similar trajectory..Of course, Alberta has not experienced anything like the vast waves of immigration that has contributed to California’s transformation, nor do federal voting trends indicate much cause for concern. Nevertheless, there are worrisome trends in some parts of the province..The most troubling signs are in Edmonton and Calgary. As Sydney Sharpe and Don Braid relate in their 2016 book, Notley Nation: How Alberta's Political Upheaval Swept the Country, even before her election as premier in 2015, Rachel Notley “had said for years that Alberta was becoming far more progressive than many traditional PCs recognized, especially in the big cities”.This trend has been evident at the level of municipal politics..In the 2010 Calgary municipal election, progressive Naheed Nenshi beat conservative candidate Ric McIver to become mayor. As Sharpe and Braid explain, Nenshi “had excited young people who were tech-savvy, well educated and liberal, especially on the deep social issues like LGBTQ rights, women’s right to choose, as well as pay equity and homelessness.” The lesson they draw is that “the election just showed how young, dynamic, and progressive Calgary had been for a long while.”.Some might dismiss such analysis as wishful thinking. But subsequent elections add evidence to their conclusion. In the 2013 municipal election, Nenshi overwhelmingly beat conservative candidate Jon Lord. In the 2017 election, he beat conservative Bill Smith. Then, in 2021, progressive candidate Jyoti Gondek beat conservative Jeromy Farkas. This looks like a pattern..Of course, Edmonton has seen a similar string of progressive mayoral candidates beating conservatives since Stephen Mandel unseated Mayor Bill Smith in 2004. Remarkably, Edmonton even voted against removing equalization payments from the constitution in the 2021 referendum..These results do not bode well for the future..Rural and smalltown Alberta has not drifted to the left like the big cities. There’s not much hope for NDP candidates there. But the NDP will likely sweep Edmonton again, so Calgary will be the decisive battleground, as many observers have already noted. If Calgary swings to the NDP, it may be that Alberta as we have known it will be a thing of the past. That would be very sad..The 2023 provincial election will have a decisive impact on the future of the province. With high oil prices and the resulting economic prosperity, a victorious NDP could use the windfall to secure a strong grip over the province and accelerate its transformation into a more “progressive” place. This could eventually result in the “Californiaization” of Alberta. As a result, Alberta wouldn’t really be Alberta any more..The response to this possibility is not to despair. Instead, conservatives should redouble their efforts to fight back against the encroaching darkness. The other side cannot ultimately win unless conservatives throw in the towel.
Recently, candidates from the group Take Back Alberta won all nine open seats on the United Conservative Party’s board. This represented a grassroots uprising against the party’s establishment. According to TBA’s spokesman David Parker (as quoted by Rick Bell), it also represented a “Wildrose takeover of the party.” That’s very plausible, considering former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith also won the UCP’s leadership..Within months, the UCP will face Rachel Notley’s NDP in a provincial election, and the NDP has been polling well in recent weeks. Part of this success, as Parker astutely pointed out, is that “Notley has done a very good job of covering up the horrific disease that is socialism.” More importantly, however, was what Parker said next: “Albertans are not socialists. When they’re given the option they are going to pick conservatism. But is Alberta still Alberta? That is the question.”.Yes, that is the key question: “is Alberta still Alberta?”.Alberta has been changing in recent decades. So-called “progressive” ideas have become more widely accepted than ever before. This helps to explain why NDP support is holding strong in recent polling — although there are other important factors as well. For example, the Alberta Liberal Party always collapses whenever there is a Trudeau as prime minister, leaving a void on the left side of Alberta’s political spectrum that gets filled by the NDP..Unfortunately, it’s also possible Alberta could be in the early stages of the path that California has travelled over the last few decades. Once, California had a strong and competitive Republican Party. It elected Governor Ronald Reagan in 1966, and California voted for Reagan in the presidential elections of 1980 and 1984. It also voted for George Bush, Sr. in 1988. Since then, however, California has become a deep blue state. Republicans can no longer win state-wide positions..As a 2018 research paper for the Public Policy Institute of California put it, “For many years, California voted slightly Republican in statewide elections. But that began to change in the 1980s. Today, California is one of the most Democratic states at all levels of government.”.In this political sense, California is no longer California, and Alberta could be on a similar trajectory..Of course, Alberta has not experienced anything like the vast waves of immigration that has contributed to California’s transformation, nor do federal voting trends indicate much cause for concern. Nevertheless, there are worrisome trends in some parts of the province..The most troubling signs are in Edmonton and Calgary. As Sydney Sharpe and Don Braid relate in their 2016 book, Notley Nation: How Alberta's Political Upheaval Swept the Country, even before her election as premier in 2015, Rachel Notley “had said for years that Alberta was becoming far more progressive than many traditional PCs recognized, especially in the big cities”.This trend has been evident at the level of municipal politics..In the 2010 Calgary municipal election, progressive Naheed Nenshi beat conservative candidate Ric McIver to become mayor. As Sharpe and Braid explain, Nenshi “had excited young people who were tech-savvy, well educated and liberal, especially on the deep social issues like LGBTQ rights, women’s right to choose, as well as pay equity and homelessness.” The lesson they draw is that “the election just showed how young, dynamic, and progressive Calgary had been for a long while.”.Some might dismiss such analysis as wishful thinking. But subsequent elections add evidence to their conclusion. In the 2013 municipal election, Nenshi overwhelmingly beat conservative candidate Jon Lord. In the 2017 election, he beat conservative Bill Smith. Then, in 2021, progressive candidate Jyoti Gondek beat conservative Jeromy Farkas. This looks like a pattern..Of course, Edmonton has seen a similar string of progressive mayoral candidates beating conservatives since Stephen Mandel unseated Mayor Bill Smith in 2004. Remarkably, Edmonton even voted against removing equalization payments from the constitution in the 2021 referendum..These results do not bode well for the future..Rural and smalltown Alberta has not drifted to the left like the big cities. There’s not much hope for NDP candidates there. But the NDP will likely sweep Edmonton again, so Calgary will be the decisive battleground, as many observers have already noted. If Calgary swings to the NDP, it may be that Alberta as we have known it will be a thing of the past. That would be very sad..The 2023 provincial election will have a decisive impact on the future of the province. With high oil prices and the resulting economic prosperity, a victorious NDP could use the windfall to secure a strong grip over the province and accelerate its transformation into a more “progressive” place. This could eventually result in the “Californiaization” of Alberta. As a result, Alberta wouldn’t really be Alberta any more..The response to this possibility is not to despair. Instead, conservatives should redouble their efforts to fight back against the encroaching darkness. The other side cannot ultimately win unless conservatives throw in the towel.
