WAGNER: Riding a wave to Alberta independence

If Alberta ever becomes independent, it will likely happen as a result of a wave of anger following another outrage from Ottawa. It is when some sort of political event provokes Albertans’ ire that support for independence spikes.Over the course of time, Alberta has experienced several populist movements that spread like prairie fires and changed the course of the province’s history.This pattern was famously noticed and explained by Preston Manning. Prof. Tom Flanagan of the University of Calgary describes Manning’s perspective in his book, Waiting for the Wave: The Reform Party and the Conservative Movement. As a student of Western political history, Manning came to identify with the various Western reform movements that had arisen over time, including those of Louis Riel, Frederick Haultain, the Progressive Party of Canada, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, and the Social Credit movement. As he told an interviewer in 1989, “I had gotten the view in the early ‘70s that there was something in the dynamics of Western Canada that produces these things every once in a while and that it would produce another one.”At some point, another wave of populist sentiment would rise rapidly and form a dominant political movement in the West. He was right, and the Reform Party of Canada was soon the preeminent federal force in Alberta.Flanagan describes Manning’s view of a populist party “as a sailing ship that can’t generate its own power and must wait for the wind and waves.” Timing is everything, and a potential populist leader is literally “waiting for the wave.”Examples of such waves include the Progressive Party of Canada, which was formed in 1920 and the following year won 34 of the 43 federal seats in the three prairie provinces. The Alberta Social Credit Party was formed in 1934 and won 56 of 63 seats in a landslide election of 1935. Preston Manning’s Reform Party of Canada went from one seat to 52 in the 1993 federal election, including 22 of Alberta’s 26 seats.The Reform Party had been organized during a wave of anger at Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative government after it had awarded a lucrative contract for maintaining Canada’s CF-18 fighter jets to a Montreal firm despite a Winnipeg firm winning the contract according to the government’s own criteria. The Alberta independence movement has shown a similar pattern. Emerging in the wake of Pierre Trudeau’s attacks on Alberta’s oil sector in the 1970s, the movement erupted when the National Energy Program (NEP) was announced in October 1980. Several large rallies were held — including one at Edmonton’s Jubilee Auditorium with over 2,000 people —and a separatist candidate won the February 1982 by-election in Olds-Didsbury. This momentum for independence was thwarted by Premier Peter Lougheed’s shrewd early election call later that year.When Justin Trudeau was re-elected in the 2019 federal election, another wave of independence support flourished. Large “Wexit” meetings were held in several cities, with the Western Standard reporting 1,700 at the Calgary meeting in November that year. Wexit fizzled when COVID-19 arrived a few weeks later.The point is that every so often in Alberta, a wave of political anger will motivate large numbers of citizens to demand change. When the wave is properly led and organized, it can transform the political landscape of the province. This was demonstrated in such examples as the Progressive Party, the Social Credit Party, and most recently, the Reform Party of Canada.It can happen again, perhaps to the benefit of the independence movement. Were the federal Liberals to win next year’s election — an unlikely scenario, to be sure — such a wave would undoubtedly emerge. But even a Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre could find himself in a situation where he has to choose between central Canadian and western interests, leading to a sense of betrayal in the West. That, too, could create a wave.Currently, the waters are largely calm. Support for Alberta independence appears to have receded to a large degree. But this is likely a temporary situation. If history holds any lessons, another wave of populist outrage will be provoked by Ottawa at some point in the future. If properly handled, the independence movement could reap the rewards.For now, though, like Preston Manning several decades ago, independence supporters are “waiting for the wave.”