People tell me that the idea of Alberta independence is dead. Support has vaporized. If a referendum were held today, it would be overwhelmingly defeated. Might as well give it up.Well, it may be true that a referendum would be defeated if held today, but the future is a long time and things will change. I’m still optimistic for the cause of independence.For one thing, history shows that support for independence waxes and wanes over time depending on political circumstances. When the federal government proposes or enacts policies that harm Alberta — something it is prone to do — support for independence rises. When those kinds of policies aren’t on the horizon, support for independence falls.Right now, with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives far ahead in the polls, most Albertans are confident that Canada will soon get a better government and the province will prosper.Nevertheless, the long-term trend is growth in support for independence. Before the National Energy Program of 1980, polling showed support for independence as being in the single digit range. Since then, such support has normally been in the double-digit range.Although different polls provide varying results, in recent years it’s not unusual to see support for independence in the 20-25 per cent range. That’s not enough to win a referendum, but neither is it insignificant.Recently, widespread support for independence was indicated at the UCP convention in Red Deer. In an article entitled “UCP members cheer for Alberta becoming own country at AGM,” the Western Standard reported that “Alberta United Conservative Party members hooted and applauded when a delegate spoke in favour of the province becoming its own country at its annual general meeting.”Sounds like the idea of Alberta independence is alive and well, at least among the grassroots of the governing party.Now consider some possible scenarios for the near future.I realize it’s far-fetched to believe the Liberals could win the federal election next year, but just think about it hypothetically. A year is a long time in politics and things could change dramatically.In the 2019 federal election, the Liberals won a minority government. Albertans erupted in anger. The Wexit organization began holding very large meetings around the province with hundreds attending. This momentum was only lost due to the appearance of COVID shortly thereafter.What would happen in Alberta if the Liberals pulled off another election win in 2025? Likely a much stronger reaction than 2019. After ten years of Liberal governments most Albertans are fed up. A Liberal election win next year would push many into supporting independence, likely greater than ever before.Admittedly, such a victory is unlikely. But a new Liberal leader like Chrystia Freeland or Mark Carney could be very popular in vote-heavy Central Canada.A new leader can turn things around quickly. It’s happened before. Don Getty’s government was widely viewed as the end of the Tory dynasty until Ralph Klein delivered the “miracle on the prairies” in 1993.A Pierre Poilievre government would certainly be much better than a Liberal government. There’s no question about that. But Albertans should realize that Poilievre must adhere to the logic of Canada’s political system too, namely, to win and maintain power, Central Canada comes first.With this in mind, Poilievre has already been clear that Alberta should stay in the Canada Pension Plan rather than creating an Alberta Pension Plan.When it comes to international climate politics, CBC reports Poilievre “has confirmed he’s not planning on pulling out of the Paris Agreement.” The Paris Agreement requires Canada to reduce its carbon emissions. Following through on that commitment would likely harm Alberta’s economy.And another recent event does not bode well for Alberta under a Poilievre government either. A bill put forward by the Bloc Québécois — Bill C-282 — would prevent Canadian trade negotiators from giving up any concessions on the country’s highly protected dairy, egg and poultry sectors.Alberta’s minister of jobs, economy and trade, Matt Jones, reportedly said that Bill C-282 would “hamper Canada’s ability to negotiate trade agreements that expand market access to benefit the broader agriculture industry.” He added that “This bill would undermine Canada’s reputation as a reliable trading partner.”Bill C-282 is not good for Alberta, in other words.However, in the House of Commons, a majority of Conservative Party MPs — including Pierre Poilievre himself — supported Bill C-282. For these Conservatives, the interests of Quebec take priority over the interests of Alberta.That should not be surprising because Quebec has a lot more seats than Alberta.The point is that even a Poilievre government will put Central Canada first. It has to if it wants to remain in power. Therefore, it’s not impossible Alberta would get sold out at some point. Were that to happen, support for independence would skyrocket.The election next year could result in substantial change. But one thing that won’t change is the federal government’s prioritizing of the interests and desires of Central Canada over Alberta and the West. This political reality is the bedrock of the case for independence.Therefore, the Alberta independence movement is here to stay.
