R.T. Wells is a veteran of the Royal Canadian Navy. With the latest Angus Reid poll now out, the streets are abuzz with commentary. Those wanting to leave Canada are delighted by the promise that a mere eight percent of Albertans are determined to leave. Those in the go camp are once again disheartened by mainstream media’s continued dismissal of Western independence, and the fence sitters watch on. I can almost hear the newspapers flapping as the naysayers of independence show off new ‘proof’ that Alberta’s not going anywhere. Fortunately for us, that isn’t actually what the poll proves.As many conservatives know, polling is notoriously biased. The lopsidedness of the results is affected by everything from language, employment status, education levels, age, gender, race, and income, just to name a few. Someone whose second language is English, for example, is less likely to participate in a survey, just as someone who works from home is exponentially more likely to answer questions. Conservatives have always been tough nuts to study, and though many explanations exist as to why, no one has really nailed down the cause. We do know one thing, though— the same can’t be said for Liberals. In fact, according to the polling firm, Data for Progress, Liberal activists are ‘systemically overrepresented’ in surveys. No surprise there — I can’t imagine a Liberal giving up the opportunity to air their grievances — even if it is on work time.According to CBC, “How US polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they’re more likely to get it right this time” forecasters thought Hillary would win by 71% to 99%. Obviously, they missed the mark on that one. What’s extra amusing is that this article was written in 2020, assuring its readers that pollsters had learned from their mistakes and had recalibrated their methodology. But along came 2024, and those same experts misjudged state after state, until the Trump underdog won by a landslide.And then there was Brexit. No one thought in a million years the Brits would leave the very union they helped create — but they did. From Ipsos reports on the day, to lead-up questionnaires from virtually every news source around the world, everyone concluded Britain would never leave the EU..In the US, they blamed poorly educated people, lack of voter turnout, and pesky right-wingers refusing to answer polling questions for the inaccurate results, but the Brits had different excuses. They claimed expressive voting was to blame; a phenomenon where people vote based on their emotions in the moment rather than numerical facts provided in advance.Though their reasons for failing to predict the outcomes were different, both Trump and Brexit suffered from the same polling phenomenon — denial. No matter how good the polling models are, when people don’t want to believe something — they don’t — and no number of facts will sway them. Just look at everyone who voted for the Liberals in 2025, despite irrefutable evidence that life in Canada is in every way worse today than it was 11 years ago. Though the damage they’ve done is clear, the Feds narrowly missed a majority government. Think about that for a moment. Higher cost of living, lack of affordable housing, social unrest, race-based policies, mass immigration, climbing unemployment, and the deliberate destruction of our national identity — and still — they’re running the show.So, what’s the lurking variable — the X-factor that threw the experts off? It’s quite simple, really. It’s the presence of a strong base. Though a majority vote is needed on the big day, it’s actually the base that counts. Now the Left loves to split hairs — it’s what they do. In fact, there are days when I think it’s all they do. So, it’s hardly a surprise that Angus Reid should do the same and state that 29% of Albertans would vote to leave Canada, but only 8% are seen as serious, as the remaining group could be persuaded to stay. What’s interesting here is that the pollsters have ignored the obvious — in a referendum, you’re not asked how much you’d like to go, only if you will go, and 29% have checked that box. Regardless of what motivates them or how much they regret having to choose, they have decided to leave. This number represents about 1.16 million eligible voters — nothing to be scoffed at in a province where only 4 million people get to cast a ballot. It’s also noteworthy to point out that our last federal election saw the highest voter turnout since 1988, and still, less than 70% of Albertans showed up. Subtract the indifferent 30% from the equation and the odds start to look very good for separation.But what if everything gets kiboshed and every single Albertan shows up to vote? What if Carney says he’ll throw us a bone, and the easily led believe him? What if our 21% of base voters are moved by the promise of … something?.If Carney has proven anything over the past year, it’s that he has exactly one tool in his toolbox: stay the course. In fact, his ability to ignore problems and then paint them as overcome is almost impressive. However, maintaining the status quo won’t bring undecideds over to his side. These people are waiting for a sign, something significant on the horizon that will alter the course of Alberta for the better in a massive way. Sadly, he has no intention of doing something so reasonable, so we’re actually in no danger of losing these votes.Of course, fearmongering is always a backup when politicians really lose a handle on things. It does tap into the ‘expressive voting’ phenomenon the Brits referred to, but it’s difficult to control. Telling one group they’re all traitors, for example, is just as likely to harden resolve as it is to break it. As a result, expressive voting really is the only real wildcard. Imagine the effects of Donald Trump waking up on referendum day and saying, “The United States will back Alberta independence 100%.” These spontaneous words would not just convince our tepid supporters to commit to our cause, but also the other side, too. On the other hand, if this same man woke up and said, “Alberta will make the perfect addition to my nation,” he’d shatter all hope of us leaving. And that’s the essence of expressive voting — letting the latest news story dictate the future of all.So, where does this leave us? We know conservative views are underrepresented in polls, Western independence represents about half the Albertans who showed up in the last election, and Carney’s game plan is to do nothing. With only one wildcard in the deck, all we need is for Ottawa to do what they do best — sit tight and wait for this whole thing to blow over. After all, Canada’s already broken — they’d actually have to fix something to change minds. R.T. Wells is a veteran of the Royal Canadian Navy.
