Ottawa released its immigration numbers again this fall; this time it was tucked inside the federal budget, and on the surface it looks like the government finally got the message from Canadians. New permanent residents are held at 380,000 a year through 2029, the same target set last year, and new temporary arrivals stay roughly where they were already headed. That is the number Ottawa wants Canadians to see.Look a little closer, though, and there is a side door.On top of the 380,000, the budget offers a “one-time” path to permanent residence for up to 200,000 people who are already here on temporary permits. If all of them land in 2027 and Ottawa hits the top of its own target, that year could see more new permanent residents than any single year under former prime minister Justin Trudeau. Last year’s budget had its own one-time programs as well. When a government reaches for a one-time fix two budgets in a row, I wonder how long before it simply becomes the new policy. A target only means something if everyone is counted within it.Before you make assumptions, I’ll be clear on one thing. Many of these people are working on our job sites, in our care homes and in our service industries, and they have done everything that was asked of them. Nobody is suggesting we show them the door, but the plan itself deserves some questions. There are already rules for this. When a permit expires, there is an established path to permanent residence, and anyone who qualifies can follow it like everyone else before them. Ottawa promised to shrink the number of temporary residents by letting those rules do their job. A “one-time” program that steps around them makes the numbers look better on paper, while the same number of people still need a place to live..Let’s start with housing. These 200,000 people already live in Canada, so changing their status doesn’t put one more family in the rental line on day one. The pressure comes later, once they can bring family members over, move out of shared rooms into places of their own, and eventually buy. Asking rents have finally started to come down, partly because fewer temporary residents are arriving and partly because more rentals are being built. This budget keeps that relief going, just more slowly than it would have if those permits had run out.And when they do go to buy, there will be fewer homes to choose from. The Canadian Home Builders’ Association pointed out on budget day that fewer than half the homes started in this country last year were built for someone to own, and that much of the budget’s housing plan repeats earlier promises. Guess who will be expected to keep up? It will be builders here in Alberta.Then there are jobs. Alberta’s unemployment rate is sitting above the national average right now, and young people looking for their first job feel it the most. Fewer temporary arrivals would help them, with fewer people chasing the same entry-level work. Keeping people in the labour pool who were expected to leave takes back part of that help, and that is no fault of the workers themselves. It is Ottawa that decides how many work permits are handed out in this country, and Alberta gets very little say in it.Services are where the West feels it most. Alberta is already growing faster than any other province, and a permanent resident is free to move wherever they like. It seems likely that plenty will look at what a house costs in Toronto or Vancouver and buy a ticket to Calgary. Ottawa sets the number, while Alberta builds the schools and staffs the hospitals with no real say in how many people are coming. Albertans noticed. In the October 19 referendum, Elections Alberta counted 55% of voters supporting Alberta taking more control over immigration.So where does that leave Alberta? Ensure you count everyone in the target, one-time programs included, so the number Ottawa announces is the number that actually arrives. Give Alberta a real say in who comes, and tell us how many are coming before they get here. And send the money for schools, hospitals, and the pipes and roads new homes need along with the people.Albertans have always welcomed growth, so why should we be the ones paying for a side door we never got a say in opening?
