Opponents of Alberta’s – or the West’s – independence allege that leaving Canada would be an epic ‘layer cake’ of Brexits. For three years, the UK government has been floundering in a morass of failed negotiations as they work towards exiting the European Union. Federalists argue that if Albertans voted to leave, the resulting divorce proceedings would be worse than Brexit as the province would overnight be cut off from trade agreements, treaties, alliances and membership in international organizations like NATO and the United Nations. Overnight, hundreds of commodities would be subject to a web of baseline tariffs and the economy come to a halt. .Divorce is painful and often messy, but some more so than others. For example, when Czechoslovakia was partitioned in 1993, it was called the ‘Velvet Divorce’. Czechoslovakia was an ahistorical and artificial creation of the Treaty of Versailles, molding together different nationalities that were happier in their own separate counties. After the Second World War, the Südeten German minority was expelled, and by 1993, both Czechs and Slovaks agreed to the dissolution. Individuals who disagreed – like the country’s last president, Vaclav Havel – resigned. It was all over quickly, and peacefully. .Likewise, most of the former soviet republics that declared their independence from the USSR did so quickly and peacefully. In short, not every national divorce need result in endless and drawn-out negotiations. .Alberta could learn what to avoid from Brexit. .For one, leadership matters. When Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum on EU membership, he believed the electorate would overwhelmingly vote to remain tied to Europe. It was a serious miscalculation, as 52 per cent voted to leave. .It also set Brexit off to a very poor start. The lack of strong leadership has plagued Brexit ever since. David Cameron did the right thing and resigned as the referendum results were announced, and Boris Johnson – the most prominent backer of Leave (after UKIP’s Nigel Farage) – seemed likely to win the leadership. But internal Tory power politics played out differently and Theresa May – who had campaigned for Remain – unexpectedly came up the middle. .It’s not surprising that someone who did not wish to leave was unable to get a deal. After years of negotiations and missed deadlines, May finally admitted defeat and Johnson took over. Since his resounding win on December 12th, 2019, he appears to be in a strong position to finally get the job done. Had Johnson been in the job in 2016, it is likely that Britain would be long since independent by now. .If Alberta and the West wish to avoid a Brexit quagmire, they need a strong independence leader. It would be pointless to hold a referendum until the West has found its George Washington. . Trudeau on WE scandal: Case closed .Another reason Brexit has been so messy was the lack of unity, and the lingering hope of the pro-EU forces for a do-over. All of the major parties were split, with a minority of the Tories hoping to remain, and a minority of Labour wanting to go..If a majority of Albertans voted to leave, Alberta must burn the boats immediately and make clear that there will be no do-over. Anyone who has ended a bad relationship knows once a decision is made, it must be adhered to without waffling in order to avoid an ugly, painful, drawn-out breakup. .Lastly, Western Canadians should brush up on their Game Theory. John Nash featured in ‘A Beautiful Mind’ was a Nobel Prize winning Economist who developed the Prisoner’s Dilemma during the Cold War to predict the rational behavior of both sides. The Prisoner’s Dilemma demonstrates why two rational prisoners might not cooperate, even when it is in their best interest to do so. Boris Johnson understands Prisoner’s Dilemma. He has committed to leave with or without a deal, calculating that this tough stance will draw the EU and parliamentarians to the bargaining table with some major concessions. .Alberta and Canada would be playing the same game. Canada’s best bet is to attempt to frighten and threaten Albertans into staying. It makes sense for federalists to present only the worst-case scenario, and for Canada to drive a hard bargain in the hope Albertans will choose the devil they know. .This is why Alberta would do well to burn the ships immediately after a referendum. If Canada is certain that Alberta will leave with or without a deal, the next best position is to compromise and seek a mutually beneficial agreement. Likewise, the best starting position for Alberta is to make it clear the relationship is over and to drive a hard bargain. The risk to both parties is if neither ever moves into a conciliatory position.. Alberta-Canada Game Theory .Those claiming that Alberta would leave without trade agreements, treaties, and alliances, are already playing the game. Nobody serious is proposing that independence be completed without these important items being negotiated first. As we’ve seen in the UK, voting in a referendum to leave is only the first step..Unless the negotiations are hijacked by irrational and pugnacious characters, Alberta would not leave without a deal in place. And if the negotiations went that badly, Alberta would suffer less than the Rest of Canada. A trade war would injure Alberta, but it would decimate British Columbia..If Albertans have a strong independence leader, burn the ships early, and understand game theory, it is unlikely that they will suffer from a Brexit-like mess, or any other nightmare bogyman. .We know federalists will attempt to terrify Albertans. They are wisely playing the game. What remains to be seen is whether Albertans will recognize the game for what it is and play its hand well.
Opponents of Alberta’s – or the West’s – independence allege that leaving Canada would be an epic ‘layer cake’ of Brexits. For three years, the UK government has been floundering in a morass of failed negotiations as they work towards exiting the European Union. Federalists argue that if Albertans voted to leave, the resulting divorce proceedings would be worse than Brexit as the province would overnight be cut off from trade agreements, treaties, alliances and membership in international organizations like NATO and the United Nations. Overnight, hundreds of commodities would be subject to a web of baseline tariffs and the economy come to a halt. .Divorce is painful and often messy, but some more so than others. For example, when Czechoslovakia was partitioned in 1993, it was called the ‘Velvet Divorce’. Czechoslovakia was an ahistorical and artificial creation of the Treaty of Versailles, molding together different nationalities that were happier in their own separate counties. After the Second World War, the Südeten German minority was expelled, and by 1993, both Czechs and Slovaks agreed to the dissolution. Individuals who disagreed – like the country’s last president, Vaclav Havel – resigned. It was all over quickly, and peacefully. .Likewise, most of the former soviet republics that declared their independence from the USSR did so quickly and peacefully. In short, not every national divorce need result in endless and drawn-out negotiations. .Alberta could learn what to avoid from Brexit. .For one, leadership matters. When Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum on EU membership, he believed the electorate would overwhelmingly vote to remain tied to Europe. It was a serious miscalculation, as 52 per cent voted to leave. .It also set Brexit off to a very poor start. The lack of strong leadership has plagued Brexit ever since. David Cameron did the right thing and resigned as the referendum results were announced, and Boris Johnson – the most prominent backer of Leave (after UKIP’s Nigel Farage) – seemed likely to win the leadership. But internal Tory power politics played out differently and Theresa May – who had campaigned for Remain – unexpectedly came up the middle. .It’s not surprising that someone who did not wish to leave was unable to get a deal. After years of negotiations and missed deadlines, May finally admitted defeat and Johnson took over. Since his resounding win on December 12th, 2019, he appears to be in a strong position to finally get the job done. Had Johnson been in the job in 2016, it is likely that Britain would be long since independent by now. .If Alberta and the West wish to avoid a Brexit quagmire, they need a strong independence leader. It would be pointless to hold a referendum until the West has found its George Washington. . Trudeau on WE scandal: Case closed .Another reason Brexit has been so messy was the lack of unity, and the lingering hope of the pro-EU forces for a do-over. All of the major parties were split, with a minority of the Tories hoping to remain, and a minority of Labour wanting to go..If a majority of Albertans voted to leave, Alberta must burn the boats immediately and make clear that there will be no do-over. Anyone who has ended a bad relationship knows once a decision is made, it must be adhered to without waffling in order to avoid an ugly, painful, drawn-out breakup. .Lastly, Western Canadians should brush up on their Game Theory. John Nash featured in ‘A Beautiful Mind’ was a Nobel Prize winning Economist who developed the Prisoner’s Dilemma during the Cold War to predict the rational behavior of both sides. The Prisoner’s Dilemma demonstrates why two rational prisoners might not cooperate, even when it is in their best interest to do so. Boris Johnson understands Prisoner’s Dilemma. He has committed to leave with or without a deal, calculating that this tough stance will draw the EU and parliamentarians to the bargaining table with some major concessions. .Alberta and Canada would be playing the same game. Canada’s best bet is to attempt to frighten and threaten Albertans into staying. It makes sense for federalists to present only the worst-case scenario, and for Canada to drive a hard bargain in the hope Albertans will choose the devil they know. .This is why Alberta would do well to burn the ships immediately after a referendum. If Canada is certain that Alberta will leave with or without a deal, the next best position is to compromise and seek a mutually beneficial agreement. Likewise, the best starting position for Alberta is to make it clear the relationship is over and to drive a hard bargain. The risk to both parties is if neither ever moves into a conciliatory position.. Alberta-Canada Game Theory .Those claiming that Alberta would leave without trade agreements, treaties, and alliances, are already playing the game. Nobody serious is proposing that independence be completed without these important items being negotiated first. As we’ve seen in the UK, voting in a referendum to leave is only the first step..Unless the negotiations are hijacked by irrational and pugnacious characters, Alberta would not leave without a deal in place. And if the negotiations went that badly, Alberta would suffer less than the Rest of Canada. A trade war would injure Alberta, but it would decimate British Columbia..If Albertans have a strong independence leader, burn the ships early, and understand game theory, it is unlikely that they will suffer from a Brexit-like mess, or any other nightmare bogyman. .We know federalists will attempt to terrify Albertans. They are wisely playing the game. What remains to be seen is whether Albertans will recognize the game for what it is and play its hand well.
