On June 16, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney surprised all of North America by releasing an official statement declaring that he and Trump had “agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming 30 days."He raised expectations to beat Trump’s August 1 deadline by a solid two weeks and sign a trade deal with the US.But, as we’ve learned with Canada’s newbie PM, what Carney says and what happens in reality often don’t match up..MCMILLAN: Independence from what?.Those thirty days passed, without result.Then August 1 also passed without a deal, and Canada was slapped with more tariffs.What was the PM thinking?.I’ve argued before that Carney really did believe he could reach a trade agreement with Trump, otherwise, he wouldn’t have attempted such a high-risk strategy.I believe he makes what seem to be unattainable promises to Stay the Hell In Power (SHIP), by keeping his popularity high and thereby countering the threat of a non-confidence motion.But now, barely undocked, Carney’s SHIP is taking on water..DUR: Smith fixed the receipts in days, babies left to die for decades.His government is slowly beginning to sink, down 2 points since July. Surely not a big deal, but remember, a failure to pass a budget in the fall could swamp it.With Trump’s upping tariffs to 35% on non-USMCA products and the 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, Carney’s narrative has abruptly switched. He now harps on the fact that “85% of our trade with the United States is tariff-free."However, a CBC article published on August 10 reports a stunning rebuttal to that claim, citing American data. The US Census Bureau reveals that in 2024, exemption under the USMCA was granted for just 38% of goods by value exported from Canada to the US..The discrepancy exists because 85% of goods by value only have the potential for exemption. The US number (38%) is the actual exemption granted. According to US data, Carney’s words do not match what’s really going on.Tariffs are a much bigger problem for Canada than Carney will let on, all to save face.The need to address tariffs has begun to expand into a worry that Trump will target the USMCA itself, a concern voiced by Ontario Premier Doug Ford and also Canada’s business sector..RUBENSTEIN: Parks Canada drops ‘genocide’ but keeps the narrative.Carney is running into the brick wall of Trump’s realpolitik, and it’s arguable that Pierre Poilievre wouldn’t do any better against it. Trump is holding nearly all the (Trump) cards, except energy and resources. The advantage of an economy ten times the size of Canada’s and the most powerful military in the world allows him to be cavalier during negotiations and feign indifference.“I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs,” Trump mused before the deadline. “Not really a negotiation.”.If we are destined to come out of this negotiation with a loss (Ford is canvassing against Trump for the upcoming midterms to stop this), the federal government’s focus should shift to alternatives to address Canada’s economic woes.Carney claims to have begun this process, aiming for diversification of supply chains, nation-building projects, and creating “One Canadian Economy”, pressing the provinces to remove trade barriers.But will these things happen, or are they just more words that don’t match the reality of the situation?.PARKE: Culture and politics, who shapes whom?.Now that China’s increased its attack on the West — with a 76% canola seed tariff — we’re being squeezed by our two biggest trading partners more than ever.Without some kind of miracle, Carney is about to watch his popularity implode.While he may have avoided the typical technocrat’s mistake of announcing cuts to the federal public service or announcing austerity measures, both are on the way..Carney continues massive cuts to the CRA despite promising that the Liberals would focus on “capping, not cuts.” Yet another ruse.Relatedly, the Canadian economy, still largely market-based and dependent on private businesses, is cooling significantly after an initial bump from trying to beat out the tariff deadline.“Consumer confidence has plunged,” writes Jock Finlayson of the Fraser Institute. “Household spending has softened, housing markets across most of Canada are in a funk, and companies are pausing investments until there’s greater clarity on the future of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship.”.LYTLE: Pulling back the curtain on AI.Neither the private nor the public sector are doing well.Carney’s crisis management, much like his nebulous promises, has yet to be reified..But double-speak has bought him some time. It now appears he’s stalling in hopes for a miracle like an overturn during the US midterms, but in the meantime, another political reality is about to hit him hard — from the Canadian people.If he has any sense of what’s coming, he will deregulate and allow for confidence and investment in pipelines and other big energy projects quickly. Forget C-5. As it is, panic is about to set in to his cabinet from the unprecedented situation of being caught between the US and China..MORGAN: The horrors of communism are being forgotten.I can’t see how the Carney Liberals survive an upcoming non-confidence motion if low-information voters become cognizant of just how often his promises fail.Let’s keep the reality of the situation in circulation.Mavros Whissell is a Sudbury-based geologist and land technician.
