In a surprising June 20 Nanos Research poll, Mark Carney is more than twice as preferred for Canada’s PM, as is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The federal Liberals also have a 14-point lead over the Conservatives.There’s no election, so who cares, right? We’ll get back to that.There’s nothing concrete yet to explain why Carney is doing so well, only intangibles, like the sense of relief when he is compared to his predecessor..After nearly 10 years of unaccountability, virtue-signaling and non-answers, Canadians are relieved to have someone at the helm who appears to be constructive and who isn’t afraid to answer questions.Carney is also actively redefining his image through a blitzkrieg of meetings and political promises. He needs to remain popular because his government is only a minority, and it hasn’t so much as tabled a budget — and won't, for nearly a year.Indeed, the Liberals could be hit with a non-confidence motion after the summer. But how practical would it be to force an election while Carney was still so far up in the polls?.That’s a big part of why he’s trying so hard so soon.Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you Carney’s number one — completely off the books — secret priority: to Stay the Hell In Power (S.H.I.P.) It’s so secret it wasn’t included as one of the seven top priorities he gave to Liberal MPs in May.While most politicians do try to stay in power, what Carney is doing is unique because it addresses the typical failing of technocrats (like himself) in an atypical fashion. If we look at short term technocracies such as those of Lucas Papademos in Greece (6 months) or Mario Monti in Italy, (18 months) they both got booted quickly. That's because both implemented austerity measures to address crises, and then faced public backlash they couldn’t contain.Carney has seen these errors and is prepared..He knows it’s essential to successfully meet all possible outcomes of a non-confidence vote. But to do that, he must keep many Canadians satisfied with his progress.That brings us to the myriad of promises he’s made.Promises Carney’s made since his election include getting “something concrete” on joining ReArm Europe by Canada Day and a tariff deal with Trump “within 30 days” of the G7 conference. The fact he’s made so many time-sensitive promises, a few after being elected, has excited some while confusing others.On the Herle Burle podcast, for instance, neither lobbyist David Herle nor his experienced journalist guests could fathom why Carney was setting himself up for failure in this way. It seemed to them unnecessary to make so many time-sensitive promises, especially those made after the election.But there is at least one probable reason the PM is running things as if he’s still in the middle of an election.One little slip by a Liberal MP, or an angry response from the BQ or CPC, could quickly snowball into an election. Keeping his popularity up with promises, and at least appearing to deliver, discourages his opponents from pushing toward non-confidence.It’s a high risk strategy. It requires high energy to implement. Promises often require legislation to be kept, and ramming through bills such as C-5 in a short timeframe is not only difficult, but fraught with unexpected consequences..“You’re going to get away with that ramming through for a while,” The Globe’s Shannon Proudfoot explained on Herle’s podcast. “Probably for long enough to tell yourself that it’s fine. That the, you know, the nay-sayers […] are wrong because those chickens won’t come home to roost for a while. It’s just like C-5, right? If you’re determined to do big things fast, it’s going to take a little while before the serious resistance works its way through the system and hits you in the face.”I can understand if you’re excited by the hurried movement of the “nation-building” Bill C-5 through Parliament, to be passed by Canada Day. (It was.)But Senator Paula Simons and Mi’kmaw senators Paul Prosper and Brian Francis raised concerns with Bill C-5 over indigenous rights which could create problems — both now, and later. Simons warned that ramming through the bill could lead to litigation, making investors wary.“It may not give capital markets the assurance that they’re looking for before they invest,” Simons cautioned on CBC’s Power & Politics..Carney is clearly no Trudeau. He understands and has considered legal battles as probable. But his priority is to S.H.I.P. — Stay the Hell In Power.To accomplish that, he must keep Canadians satisfied and make a non-confidence vote unlikely to succeed. If he can do this, he will have avoided the chief failing of his technocrat brethren of the past.I remain skeptical of any 'nation building' projects and don’t expect them to materialize. Bill C-5 is the smoke and mirrors necessary because being trapped in a minority government is a bigger problem for Carney than he’s willing to admit. He must at least appear to get things done.On the other hand, sustained political pressure on the Liberals’ minority may prove the advantage of the Westminster parliamentary system, and help save Canada from disaster. It may force Carney to build a pipeline.
In a surprising June 20 Nanos Research poll, Mark Carney is more than twice as preferred for Canada’s PM, as is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The federal Liberals also have a 14-point lead over the Conservatives.There’s no election, so who cares, right? We’ll get back to that.There’s nothing concrete yet to explain why Carney is doing so well, only intangibles, like the sense of relief when he is compared to his predecessor..After nearly 10 years of unaccountability, virtue-signaling and non-answers, Canadians are relieved to have someone at the helm who appears to be constructive and who isn’t afraid to answer questions.Carney is also actively redefining his image through a blitzkrieg of meetings and political promises. He needs to remain popular because his government is only a minority, and it hasn’t so much as tabled a budget — and won't, for nearly a year.Indeed, the Liberals could be hit with a non-confidence motion after the summer. But how practical would it be to force an election while Carney was still so far up in the polls?.That’s a big part of why he’s trying so hard so soon.Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you Carney’s number one — completely off the books — secret priority: to Stay the Hell In Power (S.H.I.P.) It’s so secret it wasn’t included as one of the seven top priorities he gave to Liberal MPs in May.While most politicians do try to stay in power, what Carney is doing is unique because it addresses the typical failing of technocrats (like himself) in an atypical fashion. If we look at short term technocracies such as those of Lucas Papademos in Greece (6 months) or Mario Monti in Italy, (18 months) they both got booted quickly. That's because both implemented austerity measures to address crises, and then faced public backlash they couldn’t contain.Carney has seen these errors and is prepared..He knows it’s essential to successfully meet all possible outcomes of a non-confidence vote. But to do that, he must keep many Canadians satisfied with his progress.That brings us to the myriad of promises he’s made.Promises Carney’s made since his election include getting “something concrete” on joining ReArm Europe by Canada Day and a tariff deal with Trump “within 30 days” of the G7 conference. The fact he’s made so many time-sensitive promises, a few after being elected, has excited some while confusing others.On the Herle Burle podcast, for instance, neither lobbyist David Herle nor his experienced journalist guests could fathom why Carney was setting himself up for failure in this way. It seemed to them unnecessary to make so many time-sensitive promises, especially those made after the election.But there is at least one probable reason the PM is running things as if he’s still in the middle of an election.One little slip by a Liberal MP, or an angry response from the BQ or CPC, could quickly snowball into an election. Keeping his popularity up with promises, and at least appearing to deliver, discourages his opponents from pushing toward non-confidence.It’s a high risk strategy. It requires high energy to implement. Promises often require legislation to be kept, and ramming through bills such as C-5 in a short timeframe is not only difficult, but fraught with unexpected consequences..“You’re going to get away with that ramming through for a while,” The Globe’s Shannon Proudfoot explained on Herle’s podcast. “Probably for long enough to tell yourself that it’s fine. That the, you know, the nay-sayers […] are wrong because those chickens won’t come home to roost for a while. It’s just like C-5, right? If you’re determined to do big things fast, it’s going to take a little while before the serious resistance works its way through the system and hits you in the face.”I can understand if you’re excited by the hurried movement of the “nation-building” Bill C-5 through Parliament, to be passed by Canada Day. (It was.)But Senator Paula Simons and Mi’kmaw senators Paul Prosper and Brian Francis raised concerns with Bill C-5 over indigenous rights which could create problems — both now, and later. Simons warned that ramming through the bill could lead to litigation, making investors wary.“It may not give capital markets the assurance that they’re looking for before they invest,” Simons cautioned on CBC’s Power & Politics..Carney is clearly no Trudeau. He understands and has considered legal battles as probable. But his priority is to S.H.I.P. — Stay the Hell In Power.To accomplish that, he must keep Canadians satisfied and make a non-confidence vote unlikely to succeed. If he can do this, he will have avoided the chief failing of his technocrat brethren of the past.I remain skeptical of any 'nation building' projects and don’t expect them to materialize. Bill C-5 is the smoke and mirrors necessary because being trapped in a minority government is a bigger problem for Carney than he’s willing to admit. He must at least appear to get things done.On the other hand, sustained political pressure on the Liberals’ minority may prove the advantage of the Westminster parliamentary system, and help save Canada from disaster. It may force Carney to build a pipeline.
