The number one requirement to make a business case for an oil pipeline is demand.Or, at least, it should be.While demand is at best somewhat predictable in the long term, it’s particularly difficult to predict in the short term. Change can strike like a bolt from the blue. The Iran war has created such a shock: a sudden and dramatic shift that has sent oil prices soaring. While that’s good news for industry and the government, it’s likely ephemeral. Whenever the war begins to wind down, so too will the price of crude.The bump, however, is a missed opportunity that was in fact expected.Canada and the neglected West have missed the chance to make something good out of something terrible and will likely miss more such ‘glass half-full’ opportunities over the next several years. These market irregularities first began with Trump’s re-election and are now peaking due to a long-anticipated eruption in global conflict.However, conflict isn’t what devotees of net-zero ideology like Prime Minister Mark Carney and former prime minister Justin Trudeau have prepared Canada for. Why do you think we are in such a panic over sovereignty in our Arctic? Why do you suppose our military is in such a dilapidated condition? Instead of prioritizing real-world concerns, our political leaders have prioritized ideology that costs Canadians while leaving us vulnerable. Their preferred ideologies ignore realities like war and conflict in favour of a Davos kumbaya club..Net-zero ideology is fundamentally flawed because it relies on Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s (1712–1778) concept of man as a “noble savage.”Rousseau believed that, in the absence of a civilization enforcing law, man would simply lay down his arms and share everything he had for the good of nature and humanity.Sorry, Jack, but right now the world is on fire. And people who paid attention to real-world events saw it coming. Everything from the war with Iran, to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, to the rising price of oil and gasoline at the pumps was predicted last summer. You can read about it here. Gaining leverage by blocking the Strait is an old tactic, used almost 40 years ago, during the Iran-Iraq war.But Canadians and especially Westerners have been left in the lurch because our political leaders’ conceptual framework remains idealistic and not realistic, despite what Carney said about his turn toward “values-based realism.”The proof is in the pipeline, or the lack thereof.Nowhere is Canada’s turn away from realism more obvious than in the fact that oil pipelines, infrastructure which could have expanded and diversified our economy while shoring up our security in times of uncertainty, have been stymied..Over the last eleven years, there was not one but three major oil pipeline proposals that died on the vine. These were the Northern Gateway (NGP), Keystone XL (KXL), and Energy East (EEP) pipelines. Canada’s short-sightedness stings. With a 50% increase in the price of Western Canadian Select (WCS) since February, either of NGP or KXL would have been making a premium while pumping out around 500,000 barrels per day. The EEP would have been producing a monstrous 1.1 million barrels per day, which would have been refined here in Canada. That truly would have seen Canada “be its own best customer,” as Carney promised.Could-ah, should-ah, would-ah.The question remains: if there is a predicted, sustained global demand for crude oil, sometimes exacerbated by wars, why are companies like Enbridge abandoning their push for new pipelines? TC Energy, the original proponent for KXL and EEP, separated from its liquid pipelines division entirely in 2024.There’s a reason the private sector is acting this way. .Pipeline cancellation, whether it came from Justin Trudeau or Joe Biden, was due to ideology. Climate alarmism makes even the slightest environmental risk into a disproportionate and irrational fear. Net-zero ideology captures all that angst and purports a scientific basis for it, but the results in the real world don’t match. Net zero remains an ideology placed above human need. Like Rousseau, it places nature above man.But beluga whale and salmon habitats don’t keep countries afloat. Pipelines arguably do.The KXL would have significantly increased crude oil exports to the US. We’ve heard President Donald Trump say, “we don’t need their oil and gas,” but — despite competition between WCS and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the numbers just don’t match what he’s saying. The US purchases over 90% of all Canadian heavy crude oil. Heavy crude’s use for high-viscosity products like marine fuel and asphalt makes it very difficult to do without.The NGP would have diversified Canada’s energy market by connecting to Asia. Although our continued problems with China might again exclude them as energy partners, South Korea and India have a demand for heavy crude that should be pursued.The EEP, with oil produced and refined in Canada, would have increased our autonomy and reduced reliance on the US, with whom our energy market is heavily integrated. Reaching tidewater in Saint John, NB, would allow for shipment to valuable energy partners in Europe, further diversifying trade.Pipelines are a microcosm for a realism-based approach to running a country. If Carney is truly serious about his “values-based realism,” then he will continue the initiative he signed in the MOU with Alberta. He will use his federal powers to remove the tanker ban and the no-more-pipelines legislation. Canadians can no longer be satisfied with empty promises. While Carney dithers over ideology, the real world moves on, and Canada will lose billions in potential revenue and perhaps even itself.
