Mavros Whissell is a Sudbury-based geologist and land technicianWith every new Trump tariff announcement, a collective groan rises from investors around the planet. His latest target appears to be copper. American friend and foe alike are exasperated with the cantankerous Trump's leveraging of the US economy; all in an apparently random fashion.Daily ICE raids across the US force barrios further into desperation as undocumented immigrants are wrangled like so much cattle. Some sources suggest as many as 3,000 undocumented immigrants are detained in a single day.Leftists scream over the neo-fascism they claim to suffer, rioting in the streets as Trump abandons Ukraine to its fate, while supporting Israel and bombing Iran.Why the big change in geopolitics?.In the realm of realpolitik, everyone is a potential adversary to the new US administration.This has caused a heightened sense of global anxiety that will not dissipate easily, even long after any actual threat is gone. That will likely be the time when the fallout of Trump’s foreign policy will rear its ugly head, although it could conceivably happen sooner.Trump’s protectionism, expressed through tariffs, deportations, and a realignment of geopolitical priorities, has shaken the world to its core. The tariffs alone were responsible for a market crash beginning April 2, which had many pushing the panic button. It looked as if Trump had no idea what he was doing.But by the end of June, the S&P 500 recovered and was back near record highs. Inflation in the US eased, but so-called “sticky inflation” remained. The US economy has thus far avoided clearly reflecting the chaos Trump wrought through this new foreign policy. Unemployment has remained relatively stable at 4.1%.As Donald Trump aims to re-establish an age-old American adaptation of realpolitik, we can expect to suffer still more slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. This approach to foreign policy could be colloquially referred to as, “keeping it real.”.Realpolitik prioritizes pragmatism and power politics in decision-making, ditching idealism, morals and values related to longer-term planning that often fail to achieve results. Realpolitik can quickly turn friend into foe or vice-versa, which has left many Canadians scratching their heads in the wake of our suddenly transactional relationship with America.American presidents who’ve used the billy club of realpolitik include Republicans Teddy Roosevelt, Nixon, Reagan and George H. W. Bush. It’s no secret that Trump models himself in many respects after Ronald Reagan, including in deregulation, anti-communist policies, and the campaign slogan to “Make America Great Again” (MAGA.)The apparent chaos of American foreign policy is explained in several ways, including in how Biden’s dominantly idealistic approach has suddenly been inverted in favour of a return to Trump’s realism. .This means the Ukraine-Russia war has suddenly shifted from receiving unwavering American support to no support at all (though it may return.) European allies have been asked to take over the task of attending to Russia’s threats of expansion by upping their woeful NATO contributions so that the US no longer must play world policeman.That’s not to say Trump’s foreign policy is solely focused on only those geopolitical spheres of influence nearest to the US like Greenland, Panama or Canada.Trump contributed to the 12-day Iran-Israel war, releasing GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator “bunker busting” bombs and Tomahawk missiles on three Iranian nuclear sites. The attack was every bit a PR coup as it was a successful military operation. Russia and China were put on notice, neo-conservatives were fed a little bit so as not to starve, and the realpolitik agenda was not broken. This assault might even suggest a balance of power approach, (a more traditional rationale of realpolitik than spheres of influence) aiming to even things out in the Middle East and promote stability through force..If you wish to understand a good part of Trump’s foreign policy, you need look no further than the implementation of realpolitik by Prussia’s Otto von Bismarck, 1815-1898.Bismarck was the driving force behind the unification of Germany in 1871 and a staunch monarchist, who ironically manipulated German royalty with his powerhouse personality and unmatched cunning. He was appointed as the first Chancellor of the German Empire by King Wilhelm I.Bismarck did a lot of things similar to what Trump is now doing.Despite being a monarchist, Bismarck pragmatically promoted nationalism to secure the unification of Germany in 1871. Then he kicked out undocumented immigrants: over 30,000 Polish were deported from Prussia between 1885-1890. Bismarck eliminated free trade and established tariffs in 1873 to protect German industry from the Long Depression. He involved himself in all geopolitical conflicts to maintain a balance of power in Europe and throughout the world..Bismarck’s foreign policy decisions were unadulterated realpolitik, foregoing idealism, morals and values to bring immediate and practical results based on pragmatic concerns. He used his forceful personality combined with a fearlessness that could be said to exist in several of the more authoritarian style leaders of nations today.Trump is not like Hitler. But he may be a modern day Bismarck, at least to those who bother to learn from history.Of course, the fallout from Bismarck’s realpolitik was anything but trivial.Despite promoting a prolonged period of enforced peace, It elevated tensions to a level which have been suggested as indirectly contributing to two world wars. Although Bismarck was not the maniac who combined racist and social Darwinist ideologies with nationalism, he contributed to a sharp rise in rivalries and tension between nations. This proved fertile soil for the most disruptive regime in history, something I pray we don’t set the table for.It is however, something President Trump had better be aware of.Mavros Whissell is a Sudbury-based geologist and land technician.
