As the United States masses an aircraft carrier and nearly a dozen other naval warships off the coast of Venezuela, it looks increasingly possible there may be a regime change in Latin America sooner rather than later.Reports say that as many as 15,000 US sailors and Marines — the largest American deployment in the region since the ousting of Panama’s president Manuel Noriega in 1989 — are involved in the move, which has been officially dubbed by Washington as a “counternarcotics mission.”The world is watching developments with a mixed bag of emotions, as the Trump administration has already conducted airstrikes on 22 vessels in the region that were allegedly carrying drugs, killing at least 83 people in the process.Venezuelans certainly are. Some with fear and trepidation; others who support the overthrow of President Nicolás Maduro’s regime with quiet optimism.For those watching from Alberta’s energy sector, however, there’s a growing feeling this could be the calm before an economic earthquake.It’s no secret Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt contains a colossal ocean of ultra-heavy crude oil, much like Alberta’s own bitumen reserves.For decades, that crude flowed to the heavy-oil refineries along the US Gulf Coast and the dough rolled in until Hugo Chávez and his socialist revolution put a stop to that in 1999, and the exports dried up.When America needed a new, reliable source of heavy crude, Alberta answered the call, and Western Canadian Select (WCS) filled that gap, with Canada currently ranked the fourth-largest crude oil exporter in the world..STIRLING: When pipelines and projects were based on evidence, not ideology.Now, if Washington takes control of Venezuela’s oil fields — or even just lifts sanctions under a new, friendly government willing to talk business — the US would instantly gain a vast and, more importantly, cheaper supply of bitumen.American oil companies must already be chomping at the bit; they’ve got the possibility of a prospective partner desperate for cash that’s located in a convenient geographical location, they don’t have to build any new infrastructure on US soil, and to top it off, there’s no foreign government with endless miles of red tape and environmental regulations to bargain with.These companies have continually resisted building refineries in Alberta because they haven’t wanted to compete with the underused capacity at their own Gulf operations, which have coking and hydro-cracking units to convert heavy residues into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.The cancelled Keystone XL pipeline project was originally intended to make it easier to ship Alberta’s bitumen to Texas, to refineries such as Motiva’s Port Arthur Refinery — the largest on the coast with a working capacity of 640,500 barrels per day — but now, Venezuela just across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, is looking mighty appealing to our southern neighbours.US political figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio have long viewed Venezuelan oil reserves as a strategic asset, not just because of Caracas’ product being a potential lower-cost supply, but to stifle Russian and Chinese influence in the region and secure a geopolitical prize in the Western Hemisphere.Alberta already faces a price discount because our oil is hard to move and hard to process.Add in a few million barrels per day from a revived Venezuelan supply to the market, and Alberta’s in for a world of hurt, with reduced investment in the oil sands, potential layoffs, and stagnant economic growth just a few of the issues that could hit a province already desperate for outside investment in the energy sector..HANNAFORD: Pipelines and the Constitution: Ottawa’s vanishing act.We proudly proclaim that Alberta produces the world’s cleanest, most ethical oil, but when have economics ever cared about ethics? If the US finds a cheaper option, they will take it, regardless of how it comes about. The end justifies the means and all that.Let’s be honest, having 97% of your exports go to a single customer is never the best idea, regardless of convenience or proximity. Alberta has long warned the federal government that relying so heavily on one major market and one pipeline corridor could very well come back to haunt us.Alberta was right. Now there’s no Energy East, there are constant pipeline cancellations and delays, and any chance to get oil to the west coast and off to Asian markets (who are begging for our product) is met by staunch opposition from BC’s NDP premier David Eby and the coastal First Nations tribes who seem to have Grok primed 24/7 to cook up an anti-oil-and-gas statement at the mere possibility of a pipeline being off-handedly mentioned by a politician.However, maybe there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are set to announce a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would support a new oil pipeline to BC on Thursday in Calgary.Full details of that agreement remain to be seen, but regardless, if the Trump administration decides to go full bore on Maduro and company, the damage might already be done, and our main customer could be walking away from us — not temporarily, but perhaps permanently.Whatever comes of American geopolitical strategy, Alberta could now very well face the consequences of being tied too tightly to a single pipeline corridor and market, and the time for action to secure our energy future has never been more urgent.
