It’s become a recurring theme: US President Donald Trump issues a threat, governments and markets brace for impact, and at the eleventh hour he backs down.On Tuesday night, he did it again by hitting the pause button on the sweeping 50% tariffs he had announced would be imposed on roughly $28 billion worth of Canadian goods — for three days.“I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three-day period, based on the fact that Canada and the USA, subject to the finalization of documents, have a deal!” he posted on Truth Social..Trump always chickens out, as his critics say, but this time he’s thrown an interesting twist into the mix.“The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!” he added.Since Trump first mentioned it in 2025, a Keystone XL revival appears to be his baby and his chance to take yet another shot at former president Biden, who revoked the project’s permit in 2021, saying at the time it didn’t align with his administration’s economic and environmental objectives..The project would also increase the flow of Canadian oil south of the border and give Prime Minister Mark Carney a much-needed way to demonstrate more progress on market access for Alberta oil, with less than two months to go before the October referendum..“Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done,” Carney said of trade negotiations, but he notably didn’t disclose what Canada had offered up to get a tariff reprieve or directly address Trump’s Keystone comment.Now, the real question is whether Trump is referring to a total revival of the original project or the current push from Calgary-based South Bow to build a transborder pipeline called Prairie Connector.South Bow — which spun off from Keystone’s original proponent, TC Energy — has previously stated it would decide by mid-2027 whether it will proceed with the proposed 550,000-barrel-a-day pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta, to Guernsey, Wyoming..Trump has already taken a significant step in turning that project into a reality.On April 30, he granted a cross-border permit to Bridger Pipeline LLC — South Bow’s US partner — for the proposed pipeline.The Canadian portion of the project would follow the former Keystone XL route for approximately 526 kilometres from Hardisty to the US border near Monchy, Saskatchewan. Bridger would then build approximately 1,000 kilometres of pipeline from the border to Guernsey. From there, Canadian crude could enter pipeline networks serving refineries in the American Midwest and on the Gulf Coast.If the roughly 1,500-kilometre system is completed, it could carry as much as 550,000 barrels per day and increase Canadian crude exports to the US by more than 12%. Approximately 150 kilometres of pipe were already installed before Keystone XL was cancelled.In February, Reuters reported that Carney was aware of private-sector interest in reviving portions of Keystone XL when he met with Trump months earlier. At that time, the prime minister reportedly raised the pipeline as part of broader negotiations intended to reduce US tariffs on Canadian steel, automobiles, and other goods..Liberal MP Corey Hogan also confirmed in March that the pipeline was being used as leverage in US trade talks.Now it appears the pieces of the puzzle may be coming together, and Alberta’s energy sector would welcome the development after years of Ottawa making it needlessly difficult to build major energy infrastructure.If Trump can provide another oil export route through the United States, then Canada should take the deal, but it should also remember that a US pipeline is only half the answer to Canada’s and Alberta’s energy problems.Some observers may argue that the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, potential upgrades to Enbridge’s North American pipeline network, and a completed Prairie Connector carrying Alberta crude south of the forty-ninth parallel could eliminate the urgency of building a brand-new pipeline to the BC coast.Additional capacity is welcome, but expanding an existing system is not the same as constructing new, major infrastructure as outlined in the Alberta-Ottawa MOU. With an unstable global geopolitical situation seemingly having no end in sight, Canada should pursue every commercially viable route available and not treat one project as an excuse to abandon another.The Keystone XL debacle showed how quickly a change in government can all but assassinate a major project..Along with the all-but-certain regulatory challenges from environmental organizations and indigenous groups, as well as state and municipal governments, there is no guarantee the new project will be completed before Trump leaves office in January 2029 or that his successor will see it finished.The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline has helped open more access to Asian markets for Alberta oil, and Prairie Connector would provide producers with even more export capacity.Both would benefit Alberta and the Canadian economy, but Prairie Connector would also reinforce Canada’s dependence on the same country that has repeatedly threatened it with massive tariffs.Canada already sends roughly 97% of its crude oil exports to the US, and building additional capacity exclusively for the American market would leave the country vulnerable to the political whims of the White House.A new Pacific pipeline would give Alberta producers another route to international markets, strengthen Canada’s bargaining position with the US, and reduce the risk of having the country’s most valuable export — which the world is begging for — almost entirely dependent on one customer.Canada needs both the West Coast pipeline and Prairie Connector if it wants to stay competitive in the global energy marketplace.Carney has previously said, “It’s time to build big again.”Ottawa can start by building both of these projects.
