The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces sent a seismic shockwave through the geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere on Saturday morning.For those watching from Canada’s energy sector — particularly Alberta — however, there’s a sense of foreboding as the possibility of an economic earthquake looms ever larger.Venezuela, like Alberta, sits atop vast reserves of ultra-heavy crude, and for decades, that crude flowed steadily to refineries along the US Gulf Coast — until Venezuela’s oil industry collapsed under nationalization, sanctions, and political turmoil beginning in the early 2000s with former president Hugo Chávez’s regime.As Venezuelan exports dried up, Alberta’s oil sands became the dominant supplier of heavy crude to US refiners as Western Canadian Select (WCS) replaced Venezuelan barrels across the Midwest and Gulf Coast, entrenching Canada as America’s most important external oil supplier.Today, Canada exports more crude oil to the United States than any other country — roughly 3.3 to 4 million barrels per day..UPDATED: Venezuelan president captured, flown out of the country by US forces; Trump says US 'will run' country .Now, that dominance faces a direct challenge as Maduro is now in US custody and Washington is openly discussing a transitional administration in Venezuela.By removing Maduro, the US has positioned itself to reshape that country’s energy future.At a press conference on Saturday, US President Donald Trump gave the impression that Venezuela post-Maduro would be about rebuilding, with America bringing the tools.He emphasized that Venezuela would get a shot at prosperity with US industry leading the way, stating that the US would invite major American oil companies to rebuild the country’s energy infrastructure..“We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” Trump stated.“As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust — a total bust — for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place.“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure — the oil infrastructure — and start making money for the country.”Trump also added that Venezuelan oil was not just important for global markets but that “we need that for ourselves.”“It’s very important that we protect it,” he stated.“We want to make sure we can protect it.”Those words are music to the ears of US Gulf Coast refiners, as Venezuelan crude is geographically closer and cheaper to ship than Canadian product, and is perfectly matched to refineries designed to process heavy oil.Facilities like Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery — the largest in North America — were built with Venezuelan crude in mind..Smith says US can't reach energy dominance without Canadian oil .Now, as Barron’s reports, the possibility of a “Chevron-led” rehabilitation of Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt could eventually return hundreds of thousands — if not millions — of barrels of heavy crude to the market.For Alberta, the implications are not encouraging.With Canadian oil already trading at a discount due to transportation bottlenecks and higher processing costs — along with the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline — Venezuelan heavy crude re-entering the US market could pressure Canadian prices, reduce oil sands investment, and slow economic growth in a province already struggling to attract outside energy investment.However, when that could possibly happen is the big question the energy sector will be asking.According to OilPrice.com, reports from Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), indicate that production facilities remain largely intact following the US raid, though port infrastructure has been reportedly damaged..Venezuela currently produces around one million barrels per day — down from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s — and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels.Whether those reserves come back online quickly depends on political stability and investor confidence — neither of which is currently guaranteed, as removing Maduro could create a power vacuum in the country and possibly spark civil war.Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead at the Royal Bank of Canada, has previously said that a Venezuelan return “would likely be slow, expensive, and politically fragile.”“Refinery contracts, debt obligations, and upstream infrastructure all require rebuilding,” Merwat said.“Even under a regime change, investors will demand decade-long stability before committing capital.”International reaction has been divided on the Trump administration’s actions, with Russia and Cuba condemning the operation as an act of aggression..Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez said on X that his country “denounces and urgently demands the reaction of the international community against the criminal attack by the US on Venezuela. Our Zona de Paz is being brutally assaulted. State terrorism against the brave Venezuelan people and against our America.”Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling the US strike an “act of armed aggression,” which “causes deep concern and condemnation.”For China, meanwhile, which has previously criticized the US naval blockade as “illegal unilateral sanctions,” the removal of Maduro is a direct threat to the billions in debt-for-oil swaps that have fuelled China’s energy security for roughly a decade.In the short term, Canada remains indispensable to US refiners. Heavy crude is critical to American refining capacity, and alternatives are limited until Venezuela gets up and running again.Fixing Venezuela’s oil sector will likely take years and tens of billions of dollars, but even the prospect of its revival will be enough to unsettle markets and make Canada take notice.No matter the timeline, Venezuela’s reserves are still looming.If Venezuelan barrels return to US refineries, you can guarantee that Canada and Alberta will feel it.
