It's never dull in the world of Quebec politics, and this fact is all the more evident in the lead-up to a provincial election.Whether it's the recent announcement from Parti Quebecois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon that if his party is elected, Quebec won't have the promised independence referendum while Trump remains president, or the politicking surrounding the recent announcement of the Churchill Falls deal from current Premier Christine Frechette, it has been an interesting lead-up to the campaign.To give some context, the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ, under former premier Francois Legault, won reelection in 2022 in resounding fashion, but following multiple broken promises from the government, Legault's and the party's popularity fell off a cliff, allowing Plamondon and the PQ the surge in the polls.Since 2023, it has appeared that the PQ is the government in waiting, and, as the CAQ continued to decline in the polls, no other party has seemingly been able to catch up to them.However, the PQ's popularity should not be overstated. Despite leading in the polls for around three years, the party's support has currently stagnated at around 30%..Typically, in Canadian provincial elections, 30% is barely enough to win a minority government, let alone a majority, but with Quebec politics being so divisive, the possibility that the PQ could win a majority with only a third of the vote is not outside the realm of possibility.According to polling aggregator 338Canada.com, there are currently five parties all polling at or above 10%, meaning that consolidating more than 30% of voters to one party could be a daunting task for the PQ.The recent announcement from the party that no referendum will be held while Trump remains in office was likely made to attempt to woo soft-nationalist CAQ voters over to the PQ.But this decision may hurt the PQ from both sides. To Quebec sovereigntists, this will be seen as a betrayal of the party's core mission, and to federalists or soft nationalists, it will be seen as an admission that a) there isn't enough support for independence to hold a referendum and b) that in a time of global turmoil the PQ is quietly admitting that Quebec is better off remaining in Canada.The decision is also likely influenced by the realization from the PQ camp that continuing their dogged support for separatism may be capping their potential vote share, as, according to Quebec polling aggregator Qc125.com, support for independence is currently sitting around 31%, basically in line with PQ support..The latest polling data, taken before the referendum and Churchill Falls announcements, shows that the PQ holds a five-point lead over the Liberals and a ten-point lead over the CAQ.But despite the seemingly close race between the PQ and the Liberals, due to the Liberals being overwhelmingly supported in and around Montreal and not really anywhere else, the federalist party is only projected to win 39 seats, compared to 64 for the PQ.The PQ will also have to deal with a somewhat resurgent CAQ under new premier Frechette, and despite not being projected to be anywhere close to winning re-election, the nationalist party may siphon off enough votes to prevent a PQ majority.As stated above, according to 338, the PQ is currently projected to win 64 seats, which is notable because the threshold for a majority is 64 seats, meaning that it is not out of the realm of possibility that the election ends in a plurality.If the PQ is unable to win a majority or work out some kind of confidence-and-supply agreement with another party, Quebecers will likely return to the polls not too much longer after the October election.
