Expectations are grim for next week's budget, the Carney government’s first — and indeed, the first Canada has seen in more than 18 months: a record deficit, limited room to manoeuvre, and what the prime minister himself has warned will require “sacrifice” (from Canadians, of course...)But according to political strategist Yaroslav Baran, this week's guest on The Hannaford Show, Canadians should prepare for something stranger than mere belt-tightening..“It’s going to be both an austerity budget and a big-spending budget,” said Baran, co-founder of The Pendulum Group and a former communications director in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government, more than ten years ago. “Deep spending in very targeted areas — defence, housing, nation-building infrastructure, and relief for sectors hit by Trump tariffs — but pretty lean, even cutting, everywhere else. The public service can expect a 7½ percent haircut.”.In other words, he said, it will be neither a true deficit-control plan nor an election-year “Christmas-tree” budget. “It’s a hybrid — a little pain and a few presents."The deficit will be huge."They will spin it as a ‘generational investment.’Since taking office in March, Mark Carney has promised to “build” — homes, infrastructure, and Canada’s reputation as a reliable economic partner. Yet Baran cautioned that seven months in, the record is mostly architecture without results..“There’s been a lot of structure-building, but we’re still waiting for outcomes,” he said. “Creating a new home-building agency is not the same as delivering homes. That’s a means, not an end.”He pointed to the creation of the Major Projects Office as the government’s signature accomplishment — “largely modelled on Stephen Harper’s old version” — but stressed that it’s “about enabling results, not achieving them.”Baran was even less impressed by the decision to launch a federal crown developer to build and repurpose housing directly.“Ninety-five percent of homes in this country are built by the private sector,” he said. “I’d rather see tax incentives, accelerated depreciation, and zoning reform that let private builders do what they do best. Instead, this looks like a 1970s approach that assumes the state must be the agent of all good.”.The budget is also expected to feature a sharp increase in defence spending — at least on paper. “The government has promised to reach two percent of GDP for defence by March 31,” Baran noted. “I’ll believe it when I see it.”The problem, he said, is not only political will but capacity. “Our armed forces are so depleted that even recruitment centres are understaffed. You can give a 20 percent pay raise with the stroke of a pen, and they deserve it, but it’s harder to recruit and retain people, and to re-equip and deliver ships and aircraft in just six months.”One area where Carney’s tone has shifted — if not yet his policy — is energy. Would the prime minister respond to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s demand to remove the Trudeau-era barriers to resource development such as the “no-pipelines” Bill C-69, the Pacific tanker ban, and the emissions cap?.“I’d be stunned if that’s in the budget,” Baran said, “but it’s true — compared to Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney sounds almost conservative. He wants to build things again. He wants to re-engage the natural-resource economy. Those are good signs. The question is whether we’ll actually see delivery.”Baran said it will take time — and perhaps some political nerve — to cut through the regulatory tangle that keeps shovels out of the ground. “There’s been a lot of planning, but ask me again when the projects are completed,” he said. “That’s when we’ll know whether the Carney government can really deliver.”Carney’s budget will also unfold under the shadow of renewed U.S. tariffs — fallout from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s ill-timed political ad campaign, which prompted a furious reaction from Donald Trump.Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently accused Carney of failing to keep his promise to “handle Trump.” Was this fair? Nobody really 'handles' Trump, after all.Yes it was fair, says Baran. "The prime minister set himself up for criticism. He won the election as the self-proclaimed Trump whisperer,” he said. “He told Canadians, ‘Elect me and I’ll get this done.’ Well, he hasn’t yet. In politics, expectation management matters — and he raised expectations unrealistically high.”The trade rift has also revived calls for Canada to “diversify” its export markets. Baran, however, was blunt about the limits of that approach. “Our trade with the U.S. is at least ten times greater than with China,” he said. “You can’t offset that overnight — not even in a decade.”He warned that China, despite Carney’s recent outreach, remains an unreliable partner. “They’ll lift tariffs one day and ban canola the next. It’s always geopolitical.”Asked how long Canadians should give the new prime minister before judging his record, Baran said patience is warranted — but not endless. “That’s why we have four-year election terms,” he said.“But Mr. Carney set the bar very high. Let’s see if he can meet it.”Hannaford airs at seven o'clock tonight.
