HANNAFORD: Beyond the bombs... why airstrikes may not topple Iranian junta

The US-Israeli campaign against the Iranian regime appears far from over, and may last weeks or months, with goalposts for victory possibly shifting over time.Thus tonight’s guest on the Hannaford show, Dr. Casey Babb, a security expert at Ottawa’s Macdonald-Laurier Institute..“Early optimism in Israel and elsewhere has given way to recognition that a quick, decisive win is unlikely. The Israelis have gone through a lot. And this didn't start 14 days ago. It started closer to three years ago with October 7th. And so, you have a population that's exhausted. You have a population that's traumatized. And for them, at the end of all of this, when it's all said and done and the sirens stop wailing, is it going to be enough when analysts stand up there and go, yeah, we've bought ourselves three years? I don't think so. I think they want something a heck of a lot more substantive than that. So, I think victory to them looks like a complete removal of the nuclear program and an end to the ballistic threat, and maybe a regime change.”.And in Iran?Babb: “When you ask the Iranian diaspora, what does victory look like to you? It doesn't look like the Supreme Leader being eliminated and his son just replacing him and becoming a hardline, tyrannical religious fanatic for the next 50 years. That's not what they want. So victory to them, I think, is a long way off as well.”The American air bombardment delivered massive damage to Iran's military forces. This includes the near-total destruction of the Iranian navy, significant degradation of its air force, the elimination of many missile launchers and drone capabilities, and the removal of key senior leaders..Despite these gains, Babb emphasized that major obstacles persist. Enriched uranium stockpiles remain largely intact and difficult to eliminate through air power alone, buried deep under fortified sites. The regime has shown resilience so far, with no clear signs of imminent collapse or regime change. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with Iranian actions like mine-laying threatening global energy flows and drawing international irritation.“if you look at the enriched uranium that's buried under mountains of concrete and steel and rubble, well, how do you get that out of there? That's not just a simple task. Do you arm militias on the ground there? What's happening there? Again, that's just not going to be done overnight. How do you replace a regime? Well, you can't really. That has to sort of come from within. Are the people in a position now to do that? These are things that we don't know. And so I think victory not only is victory, regardless of what that looks like, probably quite a ways off. I think victory really looks different to a lot of people.”.On broader implications, Babb acknowledged the campaign's impact on China, which has invested heavily in Iran as a strategic partner and source of oil. The strikes weaken Beijing's regional position, but he cautioned that long-term effects depend on the outcome – if the regime survives hardened or replaces one hardliner with another, China could even benefit from anti-U.S. sentiment elsewhere.Babb stressed watching for signs of regime weakness, like defections or internal clashes, as potential turning points.The Hannaford show is uploaded at seven o’clock.

HANNAFORD: Beyond the bombs... why airstrikes may not topple Iranian junta

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