On the two occasions that Premier Danielle Smith has met with Prime Minister, they have seemed far more cordial than observers in Alberta might have imagined or expected. Why?With the answer tonight on Hannaford, is Ottawa political consultant Yaroslav Baran: "They need each other.".After Friday’s landmark meeting in Calgary, Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney signed a framework agreement that could – could – finally deliver a new West Coast oil pipeline capable of moving more than one million barrels per day to tidewater and Asian markets.Supposedly, construction could begin as early as September 2027 if timelines hold. Alberta gets a more gradual industrial carbon price ramp (staying at $95/tonne through 2026 before rising to $130 by 2035) and some relief on emissions caps, while Ottawa gets political cover and Indigenous consultation commitments..Baran calls it a partial but tangible win for Smith. After years of federal foot-dragging, she finally extracted a concrete timeline and avoided the worst of Carney’s earlier carbon ambitions. It gives her government something to show restless Albertans as the October referendum day approaches. Yet the deal is laced with conditions – heavy indigenous consultation, Pathways Alliance carbon capture deliverables, and B.C. benefits – that could still delay or derail the project. And, her room to manoeuvre is narrowing. A recent cabinet reshuffle, coming on the heels of the court-blocked separation petition, signals real tension inside her own front bench. .HANNAFORD: The duty here is to consult, not to ask permission.Ministers who favour a harder sovereignty push are reportedly at odds with those who don't. Meanwhile, the separatist wing is flooding UCP riding associations. Move too aggressively and she risks moderate voters; move too cautiously and the independence caucus could fracture the party or force a leadership challenge..For Carney however, says Baran, the optics are even trickier. He sold the deal in the East as “climate action” that proves Canada still works, while quietly conceding ground on carbon pricing and pipeline timelines. But, his razor-thin majority and vocal Liberal climate caucus — still influenced by figures like Steven Guilbeault — severely limit how far he can go. Any perception that he is “selling out” to Alberta oil will spark internal revolt. Yet doing nothing risks accelerating Western alienation and handing Smith more ammunition. Carney needs visible progress on the pipeline to keep Alberta from boiling over, but his own Green flank makes it hard for him to take the kind of decisive action Albertans are demanding."And that is why both leaders sounded unusually cordial in Calgary. They need each other right now. Smith requires federal sign-off to deliver for her base. Carney needs to defuse the separatist narrative before it damages him nationally." Thus, Baran..But beneath the handshakes, the power imbalance remains: Carney ultimately has to make the move. Alberta has already signalled it will submit a formal proposal by July 1. That will put the ball squarely in Ottawa’s court for a federal “national interest” designation by October 1.The rewards are high for both if the pipeline actually gets built – economic growth for Alberta, national unity bragging rights for Carney. But, the risks are higher. For Smith, failure could supercharge the independence movement she is trying to manage. For Carney, failure could confirm every Western suspicion that Ottawa will never treat Alberta fairly.As Yaroslav Baran says, patience is wearing thin. Albertans have heard plenty of promises. They are now watching closely to see who actually delivers. The Hannaford podcast will be uploaded at 7 o' clock tonight.
