Remember Take Back Alberta? The über-conservatives who in two consecutive party AGMs took over the board of the United Conservative Party? How about instead of David Parker and co, a vengeful Alberta Teachers’ Association giving it a try?It’s not as crazy as it sounds. This week on The Hannaford Show, Nigel Hannaford talks with University of Calgary political scientist Dr. Ian Brodie about what might happen at the forthcoming UCP Annual General Meeting in Edmonton (November 28-30.) Certainly, there’s nothing in the party rules that precludes an attempted coup. Buy a membership, register for the convention, ($169,) show up, vote for an NDP-inclined teacher for the UCP board, and enjoy your 3%... Does this pose a threat to Premier Danielle Smith’s leadership?.TBA redux. Stranger things have happened and nothing in the UCP’s rules stopped it a few years ago..Brodie, a former chief of staff to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and now in addition to his U of C duties a senior advisor at Calgary political consultants New West Public Affairs, says it’s possible, and that what looks like a straightforward labour dispute may actually be the opening move in a much more dangerous political game.Quick recap. On Monday Alberta teachers went on strike, having rejected 89%-11% a settlement offer that had even been recommended by their own union — the Alberta Teachers’ Association. The offer would have meant 12 per cent over four years, a respectable deal by any standard. Yet teachers voted overwhelmingly to walk out, even though the ATA has no money to sustain a strike fund.Why? Simple hatred of the UCP government, maybe? For some, perhaps. But Brodie sees something more strategic: a long-term play by the teachers’ union to undermine the Smith government from within, in order to protect its influence as Albertans increasingly choose education outside the system the ATA controls..“The ATA isn’t just fighting for a raise,” Brodie explains. “They’re fighting for their future. Alberta’s success — the growing economy, the flood of young families moving here — is driving record school enrolments. But that growth also brings competition from outside the public system: charter schools, private schools, religious schools, and homeschooling.”That competition threatens the union’s “market share” — and, ultimately, its power. As parents choose alternative forms of education, fewer students mean fewer ATA members, fewer dues, and less leverage.“The ATA knows this,” says Brodie. “That’s why they’re anxious. They can see the writing on the wall.”.The discussion quickly turns to the broader implications of educational choice in Alberta — which leads Canada in charter and independent school innovation. As the Fraser Institute reports that private and charter schools often deliver stronger academic results for significantly less than the cost of public education. (The per capita grant received by schools outside the public system, is just 70% of that paid to schools within the system.) Brodie agrees that the competition has forced everyone — including the public system — to raise their game.But the most explosive part of the conversation comes when Brodie outlines how the ATA could take its battle from the classroom straight into the heart of the UCP itself.The UCP’s open membership rules, he warns, make the party vulnerable to infiltration. Not that this would affect policy discussion; the party controls what motions are brought forward for discussion at AGMs. However, with early-bird registration for the upcoming November convention closing October 31, nothing stops thousands of disgruntled teachers from buying memberships, showing up in Edmonton, and voting en masse to seize control of the party’s board — or even triggering a leadership review of Smith..“It wouldn’t take many,” Brodie cautions. “Two or three thousand well-organized union members could easily dominate a convention in Edmonton, where the UCP is weaker on the ground. That’s exactly how Jason Kenney lost his leadership. The risk is real.”If the strike continues until the legislature reconvenes on October 23, and the government responds with back-to-work legislation, Brodie believes the union will have every incentive to retaliate through the political process. “They can’t win in the streets,” he says, “but they could win inside the party.”Whether the UCP recognizes the threat in time is another question. Brodie urges the party to reform its internal governance before it’s too late. Otherwise, the ATA’s next move could shake the very foundations of Alberta’s governing party.Don’t miss this week’s Hannaford Show — a sharp, candid look at how Alberta’s education crisis could become the UCP’s biggest political test yet.Hannaford airs at 7:00pm tonight.
