HANNAFORD: Immigration, inflation and Canada's fading Carney romance

As Parliament prepares to resume on September 15 after a three-month recess, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is sharpening his attack on Prime Minister Mark Carney over immigration levels, the cost of living, and ballooning deficits — issues he argues the Liberal government has mishandled since day one..Speaking on The Hannaford Show, Crestview political strategist Ginny Roth — a former communications director for the Conservative Party and longtime Poilievre surrogate — said the Conservative leader is zeroing in on the temporary foreign worker program as a symbol of Carney’s failure to match immigration policy with Canada’s economic and housing realities..Poilievre proposes ending Temporary Foreign Worker program.Poilievre promised Wednesday that a Conservative government would permanently end the program, when elected..While Carney has announced lower permanent resident targets than the Trudeau government, Roth says those levels remain historically high and are already on track to be exceeded. Meanwhile, newcomers admitted at the peak of the Trudeau-era “deluge” remain in the country, with little enforcement against people who overstay their visas.“The people who have overstayed their visas are generally not being deported. We just don't. And I think that's because he [Carney] is so close to corporate Canada and so many big employers, and they just like having this constant influx of labor available to them.”“You can’t get the toothpaste back in the tube.” That's why Poilievre wants flat population growth for several years to restore balance in housing, jobs, and healthcare supply, she says..Roth does credit Carney for adopting a few common-sense positions Trudeau had rejected — such as cancelling the carbon tax and supporting oil and gas development — but argued his honeymoon is largely based on the low expectations Canadians had after nearly a decade of Trudeau.“He’s banking on the fact that even the slightest improvement looks like the height of competence,” she said. But with no progress on U.S. tariffs, and a looming renegotiation of North American free trade under unfavourable conditions, Roth warned the perception of competence could evaporate quickly.“He said he was the guy to deal with Trump. Well, we have no deal. Canada remains heavily tariffed. We're about to enter the renegotiation of the USMCA (CUSMA), our most important free trade agreement, and things do not seem to be going well. American terms do not look good. And so while Carney, I think, has a bit of a honeymoon, because his demeanour, the sort of vibe he gives off, gives people a feeling of competence and calm, I think that's starting to wear thin.”.Carney has signalled an “austerity budget” this fall, with "deep cuts." Roth predicts however, that Carney will have few choices and must preserve costly large-scale social programs. He will also classify a wide range of spending as “capital investment” and run historically high deficits, anyway. She added that even while rating agencies are raising alarms in provinces like B.C., Carney appears content to “push off the cost to future generations” so long as debt concerns don’t bite during his term..Carney warns of deep cuts as deficit soars .Carney’s coalition, she says, is a mix of older, financially secure voters focused on opposing Donald Trump, and less secure voters drawn to his image of competence on the world stage. But she argued that if things don’t improve — particularly unemployment — Canadians will start asking why.“That’s Poilievre’s chance to say: I’d treat the economy differently — deregulate, reduce costs, lower taxes.”.Roth contrasts Poilievre’s gift for retail politics with Carney’s preference for accolades in foreign capitals. Satisfying though that must be for the internationalist Carney, there aren’t many votes to be gathered at Davos. Meanwhile back home, Poilievre’s debating skills and his demonstrated ability to connect with ordinary Canadians are well known and remain his core assets.But, does it matter that Poilievre faces persistent critiques of his “likability?”Roth says leaning into authentic moments — such as the rare occasions when Poilievre grows emotional discussing his family and his personal motives — counter the perception he is purely combative. “It shows he’s doing this because he cares,” she said.With a leadership review in January in Calgary, Roth sees Poilievre on strong footing inside the party. Still, she cautioned against complacency, urging him to stay connected to members and the public alike. Asked whether worsening economic conditions might ironically benefit Poilievre politically, Roth agreed — with regret.“It’s unfortunate, but it’s the life of an opposition leader,” she said.As Parliament reconvenes, the battle lines between Carney’s cautious centrism and Poilievre’s combative populism are set. Whether Canadians prioritize international diplomacy or domestic relief could define the next chapter in federal politics. And temporary foreign workers don’t vote.For the full interview and deeper analysis, tune in to The Hannaford Show tonight at 7:00 p.m. on the Western Standard channel.

HANNAFORD: Immigration, inflation and Canada's fading Carney romance

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