“I honestly believe if Mr. Harper were prime minister, we would have had a deal a long time ago.” Thus Yaroslav Baran, speaking on tonight’s Hannaford show.A Harper-style approach would have treated the relationship as serious business requiring serious management. Instead, we have drifted into a cycle of provocation, retaliation, and political opportunity. The deal is not done because the people responsible for delivering it have been more interested in managing the narrative than closing the file..That cuts through the fog of the current Canada–U.S. trade war better than any of the official talking points coming out of Ottawa. Baran, a strategist for the former Conservative prime minister, was not engaging in nostalgia. He was stating the obvious difference in approach..Stephen Harper’s government treated the Americans as a powerful neighbour that had to be managed with discipline, not as a moral problem to be lectured.Carney’s government has done the opposite. From the Davos speech about a new world order that comes at America’s expense, to the casual “Who cares?” when asked about contact with Trump, the tone has been one of superior detachment mixed with intermittent provocation.The result is predictable: an American president who already believes Canada has been freeloading now has personal reasons to dig in..Baran was careful not to claim the current crisis is a permanent rupture. Trump remains a deal-maker. He wants wins he can boast about. Japan and the European Union managed to reach agreements. Canada has not. The difference is not that the world has fundamentally changed. It is that Canadian leadership has failed to adjust to a more transactional American style while simultaneously giving Washington every reason to treat Ottawa as an unreliable partner.The political incentives in Ottawa make matters worse. Carney’s popularity has risen as Canadians rally around “Captain Canada.” Every new American tariff becomes another opportunity to look resolute.For now, it is working for Mr. Carney, who has record approval ratings in the polls.But it is a dangerous strategy. The longer there is no deal, the more that temporary boost turns into a liability. The man elected as the adult who could get a deal becomes the man who could not. In the meantime, the crisis provides convenient cover for more borrowing—an open-ended licence to expand the deficit..Supporting workers hit by tariffs is necessary. But there is a price to be paid for piling on the debt, as Canadians have already found: inflation, the erosion of wealth, and the emergence of government as a leviathan among us.Western Canada watches this with particular frustration. Premier Doug Ford has suggested Alberta oil should be on the table as leverage. Baran’s response was direct and correct: no province should be free to put another province’s core industry into the bargaining mix while protecting its own sacred cows. Supply management remains untouchable. Alberta’s energy is somehow available for sacrifice. That is not Team Canada. It is selective solidarity.There are also real practical risks. Enbridge’s Line 5 carries western oil through Michigan to eastern Canada. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has already tried to shut it down once, citing environmental concerns. Playing games with energy exports invites retaliation that could leave Quebec and Ontario short of fuel..The smart long-term answer is more pipelines to tidewater so Canada is less dependent on the American market. Yet somehow that, and the lifting of so-called tanker bans off the west coast, seem to enjoy the same protection as Canadian dairy, with considerably less justification.And so in Canada that conversation remains secondary to short-term political theatre. Baran’s core observation therefore still stands: until Canada’s leaders put aside cheap shots at President Trump and the kind of rhetoric normally reserved for the start of a war, nothing of use will get done.The Hannaford show is uploaded at seven o’clock tonight.
