In tonight’s edition of Hannaford, Dr. Ron Wallace returns to review how US President Donald Trump threw Alberta's oilsands a curve, when he seized control of Venezuela's oil sales, removed from office the (illegitimate) president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro and by the way, executed a dramatic shift in global oil dynamics..Trump announced Venezuela would “turn over” 30 to 50 million barrels of stored crude – valued at $2-3 billion – to the US. This oil, previously sanctioned and filling storage tanks, would be refined and sold through American systems, with proceeds deposited in U.S. banks for distribution to benefit the Venezuelan people, as Washington sees fit.Wallace, a former member of Canada's National Energy Board and seasoned energy regulator with firsthand career experience in Venezuela, calls it a "phenomenal market intervention, the likes of which I don't think is in history.".By clearing Venezuela's overflowing storage and preventing field shutdowns – which are notoriously difficult to restart – the U.S. has effectively taken command of a major heavy crude supply stream. This move not only addresses drug trafficking and geopolitical pressures on China (which as a consequence lost access to 400,000 barrels per day from Venezuela) but also reshapes the global oil market in America’s favour. Wallace views it as part of a broader “$17 trillion reset” in energy geopolitics, where Trump is aggressively controlling flows to lower U.S. prices and assert dominance.But what about Alberta? The short-term impact remains uncertain. These initial 30-50 million barrels represent roughly 12 days of typical U.S. Gulf Coast heavy crude imports, potentially causing a temporary price dip and market “blip” for Canadian exporters. No one, Wallace stresses, fully knows the immediate knock-on effects, as events are unfolding rapidly. (Earlier today, the USCG apprehended a second ‘ghost fleet’ tanker – MT Sophia – off Venezuela.) .However, for Alberta the longer-term risks are clearer. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, built for Venezuelan heavy sour crude, turned to Canadian oilsands bitumen after Venezuela's production collapsed under sanctions. Canada now supplies more than a third of those refineries' heavy imports, tightening differentials and boosting Alberta's economy. A revitalized Venezuelan industry could displace this share, driven purely by market forces – refiners will always opt for the cheapest option.Admittedly, after the immediate ‘market blip,’ that may take a while. Wallace notes that full Venezuelan recovery could take 3 to 10 years minimum, even under stable conditions, due to infrastructure damage and the challenges of restarting shut-in wells.Nevertheless, this vulnerability exposes the deep contradictions in Canadian federal policy. The recent Carney-Smith Memorandum of Understanding (MOU,) signed in late 2025, promises to expedite a new west-coast pipeline for Asian markets, with an application due by July 2026. Yet, the Government of Canada imposes stringent preconditions...One requires an active imagination to believe mandatory indigenous partnerships and oil “decarbonized” through costly carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, (such as the $16 billion Pathways Alliance facility, which buries CO2 without enhanced recovery benefits,) could ever lead to actual pipeline development..And so, Wallace questions – again – the sincerity and viability of this "grand bargain." These penalties, unique to Alberta oil among global producers, add billions in upfront costs, deterring private-sector investment in a 5-10+ year project. Meanwhile, oil imported to eastern Canada faces no such decarbonization mandates, while ongoing net-zero legislation burdens the sector further. How, Wallace asks, can Canada diversify markets and maintain competitiveness while self-imposing regulatory and carbon costs that no competitor bears?.WALLACE: The technical pitfalls and political perils of 'decarbonized' oil .The situation underscores a “gigantic wake-up call” for Canada to diversify exports beyond the U.S. and restore competitiveness urgently..Ultimately, Wallace reserves his harshest criticism for Justin Trudeau's 2016 decision to cancel the fully permitted Northern Gateway pipeline – one of the then-new Liberal government's first acts. Approved by the National Energy Board after rigorous review, it was poised to deliver Alberta oil to Asian markets, with significant indigenous ownership. Then-PM Trudeau’s fatuous rationale, “rainforests are no place for pipelines.”Its rejection cost Enbridge over $500 million directly and, Wallace argues, inflicted cumulative economic disaster on Canada's balance of trade – damage now quantifiable in the billions, if not trillions, lost over time.Had Northern Gateway proceeded, Canada today could offset U.S. market risks and replace the Venezuelan supply China once relied on. Instead, we’re years behind, vulnerable to the consequences of President Trump’s foreign interventions.Wallace calls it potentially "the worst economic decision" in Canada's history – a self-inflicted wound that current policies, riddled with contradictions, have yet to heal.Hannaford will be posted tonight at 7:00pm.
