Prime Minister Mark Carney was elected in large part as the experienced deal-maker who could manage US President Donald Trump.Perhaps the idea of “managing” President Trump was always presumptuous. Nevertheless, eighteen months ago, that was the expectation and the prime minister allowed it – even encouraged it. But, it’s not happened yet..In fact, Canadian-American relations are a good deal worse today than they were then, says Ottawa-based political adviser Yaroslav Baran, tonight’s guest on the Hannaford show..Baran: “July 1st was the deadline for Canada, the United States and Mexico to extend the North American Free Trade Agreement. July 1st came and went and the deal was not extended. It's not just that it's not extended yet, but it was a one-day. So that means that we are technically now on a sunset track for the North American Free Trade Agreement to expire in 10 years.”.Trump administration declines to renew CUSMA, putting trade deal under annual review.It's not inevitable, he adds. But the North American trade architecture that has underpinned the Canadian economy for nearly 40 years is no longer secure. Baran noted that sectors already outside the old protections – steel, aluminium, autos, and lumber – are already feeling severe pressure.That’s the first thing..Second, in the last month two new American tariff measures have made the picture worse. A 50 per cent “reciprocal” tariff package targeting dairy, vehicles, and alcoholic beverages is scheduled to hit on August 19. A separate 10 per cent levy aimed at alleged forced-labour content in supply chains is also in force. Neither will be shielded by the existing trade agreement.The automobile industry looks particularly vulnerable. Integrated North American supply chains mean Canadian-assembled vehicles contain substantial American content and vice versa, but high tariffs would make a standalone Canadian auto sector difficult to sustain. Major manufacturers have already paused planned Canadian investments – usually the first visible sign of long-term retreat..Third, even a supposed good-news story has turned sour. The opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge should have been a rare cross-border success.Instead, it became a communications failure. Carney announced a “win-win” deal in Calgary, only for the published text to reveal immediate toll-sharing that undercut his earlier description. Opposition MPs sought a parliamentary investigation; Liberal members on the committee blocked it. Baran called it a classic unforced error.Does Canada lack leverage? By no means, says Baran.“The problem is we’re just not using what we have. Canada supplies critical volumes of aluminum, potash, energy, and holds undeveloped critical-mineral deposits the United States needs as it tries to reduce reliance on China. Ottawa also retains cards on digital-services taxation, cultural levies and the still-pending F-35 fighter purchase.”.Yet President Trump appears to harbour particular irritation with Canada’s willingness to retaliate, rather than simply concede. Mexico, taking a less confrontational approach, has found negotiations smoother.The political consequence for Mr. Carney? A recent Angus Reid poll shows Canadian confidence in his ability to secure a favourable deal has already slipped noticeably.Nearly 18 months ago, an anxious Canadian public placed massive – and to be honest, sometimes unrealistic – expectations upon the newly-elected Prime Minister Carney. Certainly, he invited it with his belligerent but short-lived ‘elbows up’ line. However, while giving the prime minister every grace available, he truly has produced very little but some pretty prose for favoured audiences.And on the all-important trade file, the window that was supposed to produce that deal has closed, new tariffs are landing, and public confidence is softening. The coming weeks will test whether the government can reverse the momentum or whether the trade file becomes a lasting political liability..Baran makes his living offering strategic advice to politicians. What would he tell Mr. Carney?· Avoid shooting from the hip on complex bilateral announcements.· Keep public rhetoric cool, while holding real leverage in reserve.· On the perennial flashpoint of supply management, try creative quota adjustments, as Canada recently did with New Zealand – something that could ease pressure without detonating the domestic political consensus among premiers.No doubt the prime minister’s American Democrat PMO Chief Operating Officer Maia Johnson would say much the same. Whoever’s advice he takes, it’s time for the PM to listen. He has enjoyed one of the longest political honeymoons I can remember. But it will be over the moment that the people who voted for him last March realize they’re not only not getting what they voted for... their country is actually worse off now than it was in the last days of his predecessor… the unlamented and functionally innumerate Justin Trudeau.The Hannaford Show is uploaded at 7 o'clock tonight.
