The Conservatives have a 26-point lead over the Liberals when it comes to people certain to vote in the next election, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data.

The Conservatives would finish in first place with 47% of the popular vote if an election was held now — a four-point increase since August 19 — according to a Sunday poll. Abacus Data said the Liberals would come in second place (21%) — a one-point decrease since August 19.

After the Liberals would be the NDP (19%) — a one-point increase. This was followed by the Bloc Quebecois (8%), Greens (3%), and the People’s Party of Canada (2%).

“As Parliament is set to resume tomorrow and two crucial byelections will be decided on the same day, the opinion environment has never been as bad for the incumbent Liberals and Prime Minister [Justin] Trudeau nor as good for the Conservatives,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a Sunday press release.

“Our tracking shows that Mr. Singh’s decision to end the Confidence and Supply Agreement has had no impact on NDP support.”

Abacus Data went on to say the Conservatives would come in first with 43% of committed voters if an election was held now — a one-point increase. It added the Liberals would place in second (22%) — a three-point decrease.

After the Liberals would be the NDP (18%) — no change. This was followed by the BQ (8%), the Greens (5%), and the PPC (3%).

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 points in British Columbia, 46 points in Alberta, 21 points in Saskatchewan, 21 points in Manitoba, 21 points in Ontario, and 17 points in Atlantic Canada.

The BQ leads by 11 points in Quebec, where the Liberals and Conservatives are tied.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and men and women. Liberal support is higher among those aged 18 to 29 and 60+ than it is among those aged 30 to 59.

Forty-nine percent of men would vote for the Conservatives compared with 37% of women. Liberal support is consistent between men and women, but NDP support is seven points higher among women than men.

Abacus Data found 86% of Canadians want change overall and 56% want it and believe there is a good alternative to the Liberals. It said 14% of Canadians believe Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

The Canadian government’s approval rating has worsened. At the moment, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the Canadian government, and disapproval has reached a new high in its tracking at 62%.

Twenty-two percent of Canadians have a positive view of Trudeau, and 61% have a negative view of him for a net score of -39. This is the worst net score Abacus Data has measured for him.

Since last month, those with negative impressions of Singh are up three points and positive impressions are down four. Singh has a net score of -9 — his lowest ever in its tracking.

In contrast to Trudeau and Singh, views of Poilievre are unchanged. Thirty-nine percent have a positive view and 35% have a negative one for a net score of +4.

Overall, Abacus Data said 62% of Conservative supporters say they will vote for it no matter what happens. This group represents 27% of voters at the moment.

It said another 32% are open to changing their minds, but it is unlikely. This group is 14% of committed voters, and when added to the 27% who are solid Conservatives, reaches 41%.

Six percent of Conservative supporters indicate some likelihood their minds could change, which represents 2% of voters.

Coletto said Trudeau and the Liberals come back to Parliament facing a population who wants change, is displeased with their performance, are no more optimistic about Canada’s direction than when the summer started, and have never had as negative a view of him as it does now.

He said the Conservatives are ahead by a large margin because of some affinity for Poilievre. But what unites almost all of these voters is a deep displeasure towards Trudeau rather than a deep respect for Poilievre.

That being said, the Conservative vote is solid right now. Coletto said most people are locked in and do not believe there is much likelihood they will change their minds.

“In this environment — where Canadians have decided what they don’t like and want less of and enough are convinced of what they do — the outcome of the next election looks more certain after each passing month,” he said.

Singh said on September 4 he tore up the supply and confidence agreement the NDP has with the Liberals.

“Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed,” he said.

“The Liberals have let people down.”

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