Germany’s once-firm stance against Russian gas imports is beginning to unravel as the country considers restarting the sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines.
Not because it wants to.
But because the poster child for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s infamous “no business case” for Canadian LNG faces a deepening energy crisis, with storage levels at a three-year low and industries struggling with soaring costs.
Despite European leaders’ previous commitments to end dependence on Russian gas, discussions are now quietly emerging over the potential restart of Nord Stream deliveries just as Washington and Moscow appear to be exploring a renewed détente over energy and geopolitical concerns.
The irony is not lost on observers: while German officials remain adamant that Russian gas will not return, their American counterparts are reportedly engaged in backchannel talks with the Kremlin about restarting Nord Stream.
Meanwhile, the Liberal government in Ottawa’s assertion that there was “no business case” for Canadian LNG exports to Germany now looks increasingly shortsighted as Europe scrambles to secure affordable gas.
A bitterly cold winter forced the country to burn through an additional 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, leaving EU storage levels at just 35% capacity — well below the target needed to ensure energy security for next year.
Compounding the issue, Ukraine halted all Russian gas transit on January 1, removing another 10 bcm from the European market.
That in turn has sparked debate about alternatives, including the politically toxic idea of turning Nord Stream back on. One undamaged segment remains intact, capable of transporting enough Russian supply to cover the shortfall.
Yet Berlin continues to insist that it will resist any temptation to restart the pipes.
German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius have all publicly rejected the idea, with Habeck declaring that Germany “will never allow” Nord Stream to resume operations.
But Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, warned in Berlin last week that Europe cannot afford expensive LNG imports, particularly from the United States. “I would not be surprised if two out of the four Nord Stream pipelines come back online,” he said, suggesting that European officials may ultimately prioritize “economic survival” over political posturing.
Adding insult to injury, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed on March 26 that Moscow and Washington are “engaged” in discussions about restoring Nord Stream to Europe.
Speaking to Russian media, Lavrov suggested the US would “pressure” European allies to restart Russian gas deliveries. “It will be interesting if the Americans use their influence on Europe and will force it not to reject Russian gas.”
If successful, a deal could see US sanctions on Russian energy relaxed as part of broader cave-in on Ukraine.
That prospect has raised eyebrows across Europe.
Despite all the sabotage, chaos and confusion of the past two years, Russian gas still accounts for 15% of the EU’s gas imports mainly through Turkey and LNG shipments from Russia itself. In fact, Russian LNG deliveries to Europe rose by 14% in 2023 despite efforts to cut them off.
As Germany scrambles for solutions, Trudeau’s past dismissal of Canadian LNG exports to Europe as unviable has come under renewed scrutiny.
In 2022, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Canada in search of new energy partnerships, Trudeau stated that there was “no business case” for Canadian LNG exports to Germany, instead promoting green hydrogen projects that remain years away from viability.
