It’s been said those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.
Albertans of a certain age remember all too well the last time Ottawa came calling to confiscate their oil wealth. And now it’s happening again.
That’s because a new Nanos poll shows a “strong majority” of Canadians support imposing export taxes on oil shipments to the United States if Donald Trump revives tariffs on Canadian goods, even in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith has staunchly opposed such measures.
According to a Nanos Research survey conducted for Bloomberg News, 82% of Canadians back raising the price of oil exports as a retaliatory measure if Trump slaps tariffs on Canadian products but exempts oil. The poll, conducted between Jan. 31 and Feb. 3, surveyed 1,077 Canadians and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Notably, 72% of respondents in the Prairies — where Canada’s oil sector is concentrated — expressed support for the move, despite vocal opposition from Smith and other sympathetic premiers.
Smith has condemned any suggestion of taxing Alberta’s oil exports and refused to sign a joint statement from Canadian leaders last month because it did not explicitly rule out curbing energy shipments to the US.
“Until these threats cease, Alberta will not be able to fully support the federal government’s plan in dealing with the threatened tariffs,” she said in January.
Critics, who have called her out for failing to be a ‘team player’ and a ‘traitor’ to the cause, said the poll suggests Alberta’s premier is out of step with the majority of her constituents — and Canadians — on the issue.
Support for retaliatory tariffs is even stronger in Atlantic Canada — which is also an oil producing region — where nearly 90% of respondents back the idea. Nationally, 79 per cent of Canadians also support imposing tariffs on U.S. imports, even if it results in higher prices for consumers.
The poll’s findings highlight the growing frustration across the country over Trump’s trade tactics. Earlier this month, the former president signed an executive order imposing 25% duties on all Canadian exports to the US, except for energy, which was subject to a lower 10% rate.
Trump claimed the tariffs were necessary to curb fentanyl smuggling, despite US government data showing no significant evidence of such an issue.
In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken a cautious approach despite calls from Ontario Premier Doug Ford to turn off the taps.
“No one region of the country or one industry carries a larger burden than anyone else,” Trudeau said while unveiling Canada’s initial retaliation package. He emphasized collaboration with provincial leaders to pressure the US to back down.
Despite Alberta’s resistance, Canada’s oil remains a critical bargaining chip in the trade dispute. The US imports more than four million barrels of Canadian crude daily, with Midwest refineries heavily dependent on Alberta’s supply.
Last week, Liberal leadership candidate — and likely prime minister — Mark Carney refused to take retaliatory oil export taxes off the table.
Export levies on oil could disrupt American refiners and put economic pressure on Washington, but they would also risk economic fallout within Canada.
The Trudeau government has previously explored taxing other key Canadian exports like uranium and potash if the US targets Canada’s economy, but spared oil.
While such a move remains a last resort, public opinion suggests any future prime minister — Liberal or Conservative — has the political backing to wield it as a negotiating tool, even in the heart of Alberta’s oil country.
“The United States must feel immediate pain for their actions aimed at harming the Canadian economy and its workers,” Canadian Labour Congress president Bea Bruske said in calling for Ottawa to cut Canadian energy resources to the US “NOW.”