Once dismissed as "trolling," "musing," or simply "Trump being Trump," comments regarding the potential for Canada to join the United States have gained more serious attention as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump continues to explore this possibility.
After a month of dismissing it as "frivolous discourse," the talk has caused anxiety among Canadians and among the limited number of Americans who are paying attention to Trump's threats about Canada joining the U.S.
A cross-border study by the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) reveals that while a third of Canadians (32%) believe Donald Trump is serious about making Canada the fifty-first state, approximately two-thirds of Americans have paid minimal attention to the incoming president's threats.
In the context of the potential merger between Canada and the U.S., Americans have a significantly higher level of opposition (49%) compared to support (25%), and there's little support within Canada, except for the Conservative Party.
Although only 10% of Canadians overall express a willingness to join the U.S. in a referendum, it increases to 20% among the 2021 Conservative voters. However, it decreases to three percent among Liberals and one percent among New Democrats.
If Canada were to join the U.S., a substantial majority (77%) of Americans favour a voluntary decision and oppose being forced by pressure (5%) or military force (1%).
Even if Canada decided to join the U.S., only half of Americans support giving Canada full statehood, including citizenship and voting rights.
A quarter of the population wants Canada to be relegated to a lower status, similar to Puerto Rico, which lacks congressional representation and its citizens are ineligible to participate in presidential elections.
While Americans generally do not favour Canada joining their country, political party affiliation plays a substantial role in supporting Canada's joining.
Trump voters are more likely to support (42%) than oppose (32%) the idea. However, only nine percent of those who voted for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris supported it.
ARI asked the Canadians who oppose joining the U.S. if any specific factors could influence their decision.
Most respondents (74%) stated they would not change their decision if they personally lost their job, (69%) lost half their income, or (76%) if Canada entered a severe recession due to economic pressure from Trump.