CALGARY — Coal’s continued dominance of global electricity generation shows wind and solar cannot yet replace dependable fossil-fuel generation in rapidly growing economies, according to Heather Exner-Pirot, Director of Natural Resources, Energy, and Environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Despite record installations of wind turbines and solar panels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently forecast that coal-fired power plants will produce 10,974 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity worldwide this year — nearly one-third of all global generation (33,313 TWh) and 77% more electricity than wind and solar combined.
Natural gas is expected to produce 6,976 TWh, followed by hydropower at 4,536 TWh, solar at 3,289 TWh, wind at 2,898 TWh and nuclear at 2,871 TWh.
Much of coal’s dominance is concentrated in Asia, particularly China and India, and Exner-Pirot says one of the reasons coal remains dominant across much of Asia is because it offers countries an affordable and dependable source of electricity.
“Coal remains dominant in Asia because it is their cheapest and, for many nations, most secure source of energy,” she told the Western Standard.
“You can store coal and you can buy it from many different suppliers, and several Asian nations produce and export it.”
Coal Association of Canada President Robin Campbell also argued that coal continues to play an important role in meeting rising electricity demand because it provides power that is available when required. He notedthat in 2025, it was still the world’s largest source of electricity, providing 34% of total global generation.
Campbell added that Canada produced “14.1 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2024 and supplied 6% of Canadian electricity.”
“As electricity demand continues to grow, reliability and energy security matter,” he said.
“Coal remains a proven source of power that can operate regardless of the weather or time of day, and that reliability continues to have value both here at home and around the world.”
According to the IEA, renewables are expected to overtake coal in 2026 for the first time ever, but that category is a combination of hydropower, wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and other sources.
So far, no individual renewable source comes close to matching the amount of electricity generated by coal.
While Exner-Pirot believes wind and solar can complement conventional power generation, their intermittent nature limits their ability to displace coal in emerging economies experiencing rapid growth and increased demand.
Nowhere is this more prevalent than in China and India — which are simultaneously building enormous amounts of renewable capacity and continuing to rely heavily on coal.
Coal supplied roughly 55% of China’s electricity in 2025, even though the country installed more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined.
In India, coal supplied roughly 71% of all electricity generated, while coal’s share across Southeast Asia was approximately 48%.
Exner-Pirot added that geography also limits the renewable options available in some Asian markets.
“Many Asian nations have limited wind resources (which diminish nearer the equator) or land suitable for large solar farms (as many are mountainous and/or densely populated),” she said.
With some Asian countries also experiencing electricity-demand growth on a scale rarely seen in Canada or other developed countries, the global outlook could strengthen the argument for increased Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia.
In June 2024, Alberta phased out coal-fired electricity six years ahead of its original 2030 target, largely by converting coal-fired generating units to natural gas.
Canada also entered the global LNG market in 2025 when LNG Canada shipped its first cargo from its export facility in Kitimat, BC, allowing natural gas producers in Alberta and BC to gain direct access to Asian markets.
Exner-Pirot said Canadian LNG could now help some Asian countries reduce their reliance on coal, but for some countries, it may not be seen as economically viable at present.
“For some nations, switching from coal to LNG may be prohibitively expensive, but for others, like Japan and South Korea, more switching is still possible and desirable,” she stated, adding that coal continues to provide more than one-quarter of Japan’s electricity generation.
The IEA had originally predicted global coal-fired generation would decline in 2026.
However, disruptions to LNG supplies in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict pushed gas prices higher on the global market, making coal a more competitive option.