Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a mere 0.0027% chance of colliding with Earth, says NASA — but the chances of it hitting the moon have risen to 1.7%
The “city-killer” asteroid, which scientists earlier in February said could wipe out about 100 million people, just last week had a 3% chance of collision, making it the most dangerous asteroid the planet has seen in decades.
The asteroid was first discovered in December. Its estimated size is between 40 m to 90 m.
NASA calculated if the asteroid were to hit, it would be on December 22, 2032. Now, it appears it will bypass the earth — if it gets past the moon first.
“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure that it would happen,” NASA Center for Near Earth Objects Studies director Paul Chodas told the Associated Press in an emailed statement.
Chodas added he expects the odds of a moon strike will fade too.
NASA told the outlet, “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity [for study].”
Scientists will continue to monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4 until it disappears from Earth’s view this spring.