An asteroid hurtling toward Earth has an increasing probability of making an impact on December 22, 2032, according to continuous updates published by NASA.
The American space agency has upgraded the chances of collision of Asteroid 2024 YR4, first discovered by a Chilean telescope December 27, 2024, from one in 1000, to 1% at the end of January, 2.2% in the following weeks and 2.6% over the weekend.
As of Tuesday, the asteroid’s impact probability is 3.1%, according to NASA. The highest-ever risk assessment for an asteroid impacting Earth was 2.7% in 2004.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 ms and moving at 46,800 km per hour.
Impact risk data from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies indicates there is now a 1 in 32 chance the asteroid will collide with Earth, carrying with it the ability to wipe out entire cities.
If it did make contact, the “risk corridor” impacted by the asteroid is the northern tip of South America, sub-Saharan and North Africa and South Asia. The combined population of these regions is about 110 million people.
The asteroid ranks a three on the Torino Scale, a measurement used to demonstrate the likelihood of impact with the danger it would cause. The scale goes up to 10, but if this particular asteroid goes past eight, it would devastate the entire planet.
The Torino Scale describes this asteroid’s category as “a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.”
NASA estimates if there was a collision, the explosion would be equal to eight megatons of TNT.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about to disappear from Earth’s visibility until 2028, with scientists scrambling to study the giant hunk of space rock before it does.
“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s,” wrote NASA spokesperson Molly Wasser on the agency’s website
“It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”
“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.”
